je.st
news
Tag: lorenzo
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-09-24 22:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 242048 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 31.0W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 31.0W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 30.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.2N 33.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.8N 35.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...190NE 120SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...190NE 120SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.6N 40.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 120SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.8N 42.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.9N 45.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.9N 45.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 31.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-24 16:37:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 14:37:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:38:29 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
lorenzo
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-24 16:36:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 241436 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Lorenzo's structure has not changed much during the morning. A small central dense overcast continues over the center with multiple curved bands within the circulation. A recent ASCAT pass showed winds just over 45 kt to the north of the center, but given sampling considerations, the initial intensity remains 55 kt, which matches Dvorak classifications provided by TAFB and SAB. Despite the brief interruption in the strengthening trend, sufficiently warm waters, low shear, and an ambient moist air mass should foster intensification during the next several days. Because Lorenzo has not strengthened further since the previous advisory, the persistence factor has caused the Rapid Intensification (RI) Index (a 25-kt increase in 24 hours) to drop from 53 percent to 23 percent. In addition, the overall guidance envelope is showing slightly lower peak intensities in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper edge of the guidance for much of the forecast period, lying closest to the HWRF and the Florida State Superensemble. RI is still a possibility, but as of yet we have not observed a low-level cyan ring in 37-GHz microwave imagery, which is usually a harbinger of an RI episode. The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt. Lorenzo is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from Morocco and Madeira Island westward to 40W. Ridging is relatively non-existent west of 40W due to a mid-/upper-level low over the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Jerry over the western Atlantic. With this pattern in place, Lorenzo is expected begin recurving around the ridge axis over the central Atlantic on days 3-5. During that period, the track guidance envelope is bracketed by the easternmost GFS and westernmost ECMWF models, which are about 350 nm apart on day 5. This spread isn't too significant, and the updated NHC track forecast is only shifted slightly eastward from the previous one, very close to the two corrected consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 12.4N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 12.9N 31.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 14.2N 36.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 15.0N 38.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 18.0N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 21.1N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 23.9N 45.3W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-09-24 16:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 241435 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-24 16:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Lorenzo was located near 12.4, -29.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
lorenzo
Sites : [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] next »