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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-24 22:49:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 20:49:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 20:49:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-09-24 22:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 242048 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-24 22:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 242048 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Based on recent microwave imagery and visible satellite loops, it appears that there's been just enough westerly shear over Lorenzo to disrupt the inner core and keep the storm from strengthening through the day. The CDO is slightly offset from the low-level center, and prominent convective banding is mostly within the southeastern semicircle. Subjective intensity estimates remain T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective numbers have come up slightly to around 60 kt. However, since the morning scatterometer data was running about 10 kt lower than the satellite estimates, and the overall structure has not changed appreciably, the initial intensity will remain 55 kt. A mid-level high centered west of Madeira and the Canary Islands continues to drive Lorenzo quickly westward, or 285/15 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast thinking. A break in the ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to cause Lorenzo to begin recurving in about 48 hours, with the system ultimately moving northward by the end of the foreast period. The updated NHC forecast has only been nudged westward, but this is mainly due to the slightly faster initial forward motion. Otherwise, the spread in the guidance is still bounded by the GFS on the right and the ECMWF on the left, which is mirrored by those models' respective ensemble members. The official forecast hedges toward the western side of the guidance, roughly between the HCCA model and the other consensus aids. Global model guidance suggests that the westerly shear over Lorenzo should abate during the next 24 hours, allowing another intensification phase to begin. Whether or not rapid intensification occurs is difficult to know at this point until it becomes clearer if the cyclone can develop a well-defined inner core. The intensity guidance has decreased further on this cycle, but this is largely due to the hiatus in the strengthening trend during the day. There's still plenty of time for more strengthening to occur, so out of an abundance of caution, I did not lower the forecast peak intensities that have been shown in the previous few advisories. As such, the official forecast lies above nearly all the guidance during the first 2-3 days, and then is close to the HWRF and HCCA on days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 12.8N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 13.2N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 13.8N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 15.6N 40.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 18.8N 42.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 21.9N 45.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 24.9N 45.3W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-24 22:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO'S INTENSITY HOLDING STEADY FOR THE MOMENT... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Lorenzo was located near 12.8, -31.0 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 8
2019-09-24 22:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242048 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...LORENZO'S INTENSITY HOLDING STEADY FOR THE MOMENT... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 31.0W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 31.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this heading is expected to continue through Thursday. A slower motion toward the northwest is forecast Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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