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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-25 04:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 250236 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Over the past several hours, deep convection has increased in coverage and intensity near Lorenzo's center, with cloud tops now as cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Some modest northwesterly shear impacted the cyclone starting early today and lasted through this evening, but now Lorenzo seems to be overcoming the shear. The initial intensity has been increased to 60 kt and this is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Recent scatterometer passes show that the wind radii have continued to expand, with tropical storm force winds now reaching up to 180 n mi from the center. Lorenzo is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt to the south of a mid-level ridge. A break in the ridge is forecast to develop between 40-50W in a few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn to the northwest. By late in the forecast period, Lorenzo will turn to the north as it rounds the western periphery of the ridge. This forecast track scenario is in very good agreement with the numerical models, and little change was made from the previous official forecast. The shear that has been occurring over Lorenzo is expected to decrease through Wednesday, and based on the current convective trend, strengthening appears likely over the next couple of days. Dynamical and statistical models are in good agreement on bringing Lorenzo to hurricane intensity by Wednesday morning, and then continuing some gradual strengthening through 72 hours. After that time, the dynamical model intensity forecasts diverge from the statistical model forecasts. SHIPS and LGEM suggest that Lorenzo will reach its peak intensity in about 3 or 4 days, and weakening is possible by day 5. The dynamical models disagree with this scenario, and the consensus of those models makes Lorenzo a major hurricane in about 72 hours, with additional strengthening possible through the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is more in line with the dynamical guidance, although it is not as high as some of those solutions late in the period. Due to the divergence in model intensity forecasts beyond 72 hours, the confidence in the official forecast at that time is not high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 13.2N 32.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 14.2N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 15.1N 39.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 16.4N 40.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 19.9N 43.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 23.0N 45.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 26.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-09-25 04:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 250235 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-25 04:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO RESUMES INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Lorenzo was located near 13.2, -32.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 9
2019-09-25 04:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...LORENZO RESUMES INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 32.4W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 32.4 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn to the northwest is expected Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next few days and Lorenzo should become a hurricane tonight or Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-09-25 04:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 32.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 20SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 32.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 31.7W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 20SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.2N 37.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.1N 39.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.4N 40.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.9N 43.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 100SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 23.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 32.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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