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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 7
2019-09-24 16:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 29.3W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 29.3 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A northwestward motion should begin on Thursday and continue into Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday, and a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-09-24 16:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 241435 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 29.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 29.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 28.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.9N 31.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 30SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.2N 36.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.0N 38.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 130SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 41.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.1N 44.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.9N 45.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 29.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-09-24 10:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240855 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with many curved bands and a newly formed central dense overcast. In fact, an overnight AMSR2 microwave pass showed that Lorenzo already had a very small central core. The initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt, in accordance with the latest TAFB classification. Conditions seem to be ripe for further intensification given that the storm is over fairly warm waters, with humid mid-level air, and weak/moderate shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index is giving a 53 percent chance of Lorenzo intensifying 25 kt during the next 24 hours, which seems very reasonable since it now has a tight inner core, and after noting the storm just strengthened 25 kt during the previous 24 hours. Thus the intensity forecast is raised from the last one, showing the initial period of very quick strengthening, and is at the upper edge of the guidance. It is worth noting that all of the global models show Lorenzo becoming a fairly large and powerful hurricane within the next 5 days, and the new wind radii forecast reflects this likelihood. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. This general course is expected for the next couple of days while Lorenzo moves beneath the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. A break in the ridge should occur in a few days over the central Atlantic, causing the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and north-northwestward over the weekend. The new forecast is shifted slightly northward in the short term, but is close to the previous NHC prediction thereafter, closest to the corrected-consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 12.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 12.6N 30.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 13.3N 32.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 13.9N 35.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 14.4N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 17.0N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 20.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 23.0N 46.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-24 10:55:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:55:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:55:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-09-24 10:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 240854 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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