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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-07-15 10:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150839 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Dolores has continued to strengthen overnight with conventional satellite imagery revealing a clear 13 nmi eye and very cold cloud top temperatures of -80C over the western portion of the eyewall. The outflow pattern continues to improve, particularly over the northwestern and southeastern quadrants. Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 115 kt based on Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T6.0 from both TAFB and SAB. Dolores should peak in about 24 hours as reflected in the statistical- dynamical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast indicates a maximum intensity of 130 kt at the time, which is just below the SHIPS model. Afterward, Dolores should gradually spin down through the remainder of the period and weaken to a depression by day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be 295/6 kt. Dolores continues to move under the influence of the east-northeasterly mid-tropospheric flow produced by the subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico. The large-scale models are in agreement with the aforementioned ridge strengthening between the 48 and 72 hour periods which should induce a slightly faster west-northwestward forward motion. Afterward, Dolores is forecast to turn toward the northwest and slow a bit in response to a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the coast of California. The NHC forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast beyond the 24 hour period to coincide with a blend of the GFEX and TVCE consensus models. The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on earlier ASCAT overpasses. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.3N 109.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.7N 110.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 20.4N 114.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2015-07-15 10:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 150838 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0900 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 97 2(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 72 18(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ISLA SOCORRO 64 34 34(68) 1(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 18(23) 17(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-15 10:38:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 the center of DOLORES was located near 18.3, -109.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 16
2015-07-15 10:38:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 150837 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 ...DOLORES RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 109.9W ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 109.9 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the eye of Dolores should pass near Socorro Island later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Dolores is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours before a weakening trend commences on Thursday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 16
2015-07-15 10:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 150836 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0900 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 109.9W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 150SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 109.9W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.7N 110.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N 114.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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