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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 17

2015-07-15 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151432 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Dolores has stopped strengthening for the moment, with some warming of the convective tops noted within the northern semicircle since the last advisory. Although Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB fell to 5.5, the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt based on the CI numbers. Low vertical wind shear and very warm ocean waters should support additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and the official forecast keeps Dolores as a category 4 hurricane during this period. Weakening is expected after 24 hours, predominantly due to gradually cooler waters and a more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance during the first 48 hours and then close to the IVCN consensus thereafter. As will be discussed below, Dolores's forecast track has been shifting southward, which would keep the cyclone over warmer water and possibly result in slower or delayed weakening. Dolores's eye wobbled westward recently, but a longer-term motion is 290/5 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge located over northern Mexico should propel Dolores west-northwestward or even westward during the next 72 hours. After that time, there are some model differences regarding the strength of the ridge and whether Dolores will turn northwestward by the end of the forecast period. At the extremes, the GFS maintains a strong ridge and keeps Dolores to the south, while the ECMWF weakens the ridge off the California coast and allows Dolores to turn northward. Despite these differences, the overall guidance envelope has continued to shift southward, and the updated NHC track forecast follows that trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.4N 110.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 18.8N 111.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 19.4N 112.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 19.8N 113.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.0N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 20.9N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 23.0N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 25.5N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)

2015-07-15 16:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOLORES MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 the center of DOLORES was located near 18.4, -110.2 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 17

2015-07-15 16:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 151431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 ...DOLORES MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 110.2W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 110.2 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the west with some increase in forward speed could occur by Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Dolores is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast through tonight, with weakening expected to begin on Thursday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 17

2015-07-15 16:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 151431 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 150SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.8N 111.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.4N 112.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.8N 113.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 115.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.9N 118.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 23.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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