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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 21
2015-09-23 16:45:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 231445 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 47.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 47.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.0N 46.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 25.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 25.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-23 10:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2015 08:46:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2015 08:50:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-09-23 10:45:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 23 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230845 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST WED SEP 23 2015 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery and a 0413 UTC GCOM microwave pass suggest that multiple low-level swirls are revolving around Ida's center, which has been fixed to the west-northwest of an ongoing burst of deep convection. This pattern is the consequence of 30 kt of west-northwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. Maximum winds remain 35 kt based on earlier ASCAT data, and it appears that Ida's intensity probably won't change much during the next couple of days. Vertical shear is forecast to gradually weaken, but it likely won't fall to less than 15 kt for at least another 48 hours. Some strengthening is possible beginning on day 3 once the shear has decreased. With the exception of the GFDL, the intensity models are in close agreement through day 4, with some more spread by day 5. Based on this latest guidance, no changes were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast for this advisory. Although Ida's exact center is difficult to locate, the entire circulation has seemingly been drifting southward since the previous advisory. This is probably for good reason, as Ida is embedded within northerly flow near the base of a mid-tropospheric trough which stretches across the eastern Atlantic. The estimated initial motion is 180/2 kt, but Ida will likely gain an eastward component soon while being tugged by the eastern Atlantic trough. The subtropical ridge is expected build westward over the eastern Atlantic by 48 hours, which should impart a slightly faster northward motion through the end of the forecast period. The spread in the 00 UTC track guidance decreased on this forecast cycle compared to earlier runs, with the UKMET model being the only obvious outlier. Given the tight clustering, the NHC official track forecast was again adjusted westward, mainly on days 3-5, and lies very close to the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 20.4N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 20.4N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 20.5N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 21.0N 45.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 21.7N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 23.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 25.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 26.0N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2015-09-23 10:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 230845 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-23 10:45:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 23 the center of IDA was located near 20.4, -47.2 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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