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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 33
2018-09-07 16:42:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 632 WTNT31 KNHC 071442 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 ...FLORENCE'S WEAKENING APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR THE MOMENT... ...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 51.8W ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 51.8 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during the next day or so, but restrengthening is forecast over the weekend. Florence could become a hurricane again by Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda later today and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2018-09-07 16:42:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 623 FONT11 KNHC 071442 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 33
2018-09-07 16:41:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 347 WTNT21 KNHC 071441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 51.8W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 51.8W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.9N 52.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.9N 54.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.9N 55.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 56.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.9N 59.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 51.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-07 10:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 08:52:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 09:22:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 32
2018-09-07 10:50:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 805 WTNT41 KNHC 070850 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 Florence's structure continues to be negatively affected by strong southwesterly shear. Cloud tops have generally warmed over the past 6 hours, and recent microwave data show that the low-level circulation center of Florence is displaced nearly 20 nmi to the southwest of the mid-level center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased since last night, and now support an initial intensity of 55 kt. Based on GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostic output, the southwesterly shear is near its peak now, and should gradually decrease over the next 24 to 36 h. All of the intensity guidance shows little change in intensity through that time. From 48 h onward, a low shear/warm SST environment should allow the tropical storm to re-strengthen. However, the extent and timing of the strengthening varies greatly from model to model, with the dynamical models generally showing more intensification, and sooner, than the statistical models. As has been the case for most of Florence's existence thus far, confidence in the intensity forecast, especially beyond 36 h, is low. The new official forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory for the first 48 h, but close to it after that, and lies between the more aggressive HCCA and less aggressive IVCN consensus aids. Nighttime Proxy-Vis and earlier microwave imagery indicate that Florence has turned westward, with an estimated initial motion of 275/6 kt. Most of the track guidance has shifted slightly toward the southwest, so the NHC track forecast has also been nudged in that direction. Over the next 3 days of the forecast, Florence should be steered generally westward, and then west-northwestward, by a mid-level ridge to its north. By days 4 and 5, a developing mid-latitude trough could create a weakness in this ridge and allow Florence to move more toward the northwest, but there is still considerable uncertainty in the global models and their ensembles regarding the strength of the ridge and if the aforementioned trough will have any notable impact on the track of Florence. The NHC forecast follows HCCA very closely, and is also near the middle of the large combined envelope of the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF ensembles. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin to affect Bermuda later today and portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. 2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track beyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other impacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week. 3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good time for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 25.1N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 25.1N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 25.0N 53.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 25.0N 54.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 25.1N 55.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 26.2N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 27.5N 63.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 30.0N 70.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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