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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2018-09-07 10:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 225 FONT11 KNHC 070849 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-07 10:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 7 the center of Florence was located near 25.1, -50.7 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 32
2018-09-07 10:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 520 WTNT31 KNHC 070849 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 ...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 50.7W ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 50.7 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion will likely continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by the end of the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected today. However, Florence is forecast to restrengthen and become a hurricane again over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda later today and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 32
2018-09-07 10:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 348 WTNT21 KNHC 070848 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 50.7W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 50.7W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 50.4W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.1N 51.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.0N 53.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N 54.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.1N 55.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 26.2N 58.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 50.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 31
2018-09-07 04:54:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 738 WTNT41 KNHC 070254 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 Deep convection near the center of Florence has continued to decrease during the past several hours, and the overall cloud pattern remains elongated from southwest to northeast. The latest Dvorak estimates and a recent scatterometer pass suggest that Florence is no longer a hurricane, and the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt. Some further weakening is anticipated since the shear isn't forecast to change much in the short term. However, all of the global models show a significant reduction of shear during the next several days, especially later this weekend. In combination with waters warming to near 29C, these conditions should promote strengthening into a hurricane again in a day or two and a major hurricane by early next week. The intensity guidance is higher than the last cycle at long range, which is hard to argue with considering the large upper-level anticyclone forecast in the vicinity of Florence. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous prediction, a bit elevated from the previous forecast at days 4 and 5, although still below the intensity guidance. A recent scatterometer pass indicates that Florence has slowed down and turned left, estimated at 290/6. A narrow ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean should continue to turn the storm westward overnight, albeit traveling at a relatively slow pace due to the strength of the ridge. This ridge is forecast is strengthen at long range, steering Florence faster to the west-northwest over the western Atlantic Ocean. Except for the UKMET, most of the historically reliable guidance is in reasonable agreement on this scenario, which is a bit surprising given the recent trials and tribulations from the guidance suite. The models continue to shift westward at long range, however, owing to differences on the strength and position of that ridge, and the official NHC track forecast is moved in that direction. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin to affect Bermuda on Friday and portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. 2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track beyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other impacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week. 3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good time for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 25.1N 49.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 25.2N 50.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 25.2N 52.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 25.2N 53.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 25.3N 54.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 26.1N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 27.6N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 30.0N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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