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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 30
2018-09-06 22:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 848 WTNT21 KNHC 062042 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.4N 50.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.5N 52.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.5N 53.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.6N 54.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.4N 57.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 49.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/RHOME
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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-06 16:41:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Sep 2018 14:41:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Sep 2018 15:22:04 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 29
2018-09-06 16:39:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 231 WTNT41 KNHC 061439 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 Vertical shear has increased since yesterday, which has caused a degradation of Florence's structure and a decrease in its maximum winds. The cloud-filled eye has been eroded over the past hour or so, and the deep convection is no longer symmetric, with the low-level circulation peeking out from under the higher clouds. Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB have fallen to T5.0-5.5 (90-100 kt), while the objective numbers from UW-CIMSS support 70-90 kt. The initial intensity is set at 90 kt, near the middle of this wide range of estimates. The intensity forecast has been somewhat of a self-defeating prophecy due to the nuances of the environmental shear. Even though Florence was able to rapidly intensify yesterday in an area just south of a zone of strong shear, the hurricane's stronger-than- expected intensity caused it to move more poleward, into that stronger shear. Right now, shear analyses range anywhere from 25-30 kt, and the latest available guidance suggests that this level of shear should continue for another 12-24 hours. As a result, continued weakening is forecast over the next day or so. After 36 hours, Florence is likely to encounter an upper-level environment that is more conducive for reintensification. The NHC forecast is adjusted downward toward the newest consensus aids, especially during the first 48 hours, but it still shows Florence reaching major hurricane strength again by days 4 and 5. Florence's forward motion has slowed just a little to 9 kt toward the northwest (315 degrees). A mid-level ridge is building to the north, which is likely to cause the hurricane to turn westward by 36 hours, with that motion continuing through about day 3. After that time, there is still considerable uncertainty in the evolution of the steering pattern over the western Atlantic, especially on day 4. On one hand, the GFS and HWRF dig a strong shortwave trough over Atlantic Canada by Monday, creating a break in the ridge which would allow Florence to turn northwestward. On the other hand, the ECMWF and UKMET both have weaker troughs and maintain stronger ridging over the northwestern Atlantic, allowing Florence to maintain a westward or west-northwestward course. All the models show a mid-level high over the western Atlantic by Tuesday. Due to typical biases among these models in the part of the Atlantic, we prefer to be between the GFS and ECMWF solutions at this time, which places the official NHC track forecast close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and just north of HCCA. There is still considerable model ensemble spread for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday and portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 24.6N 48.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 25.2N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 25.6N 51.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 25.6N 52.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 25.7N 54.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.3N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 28.0N 59.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 29.5N 65.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2018-09-06 16:39:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 925 FONT11 KNHC 061439 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-06 16:38:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE WEAKENS FURTHER... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 6 the center of Florence was located near 24.6, -48.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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