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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 29
2018-09-06 16:38:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 636 WTNT31 KNHC 061438 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 ...FLORENCE WEAKENS FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 48.6W ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 48.6 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and west with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. Florence may begin to move faster toward the west-northwest over the western Atlantic early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Florence is expected to remain a hurricane and likely reintensify over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on Friday and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 29
2018-09-06 16:38:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 635 WTNT21 KNHC 061438 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 48.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 48.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.2N 49.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.6N 51.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.6N 52.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.7N 54.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.3N 56.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 29.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-06 10:47:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Sep 2018 08:47:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Sep 2018 09:22:08 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 28
2018-09-06 10:46:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 505 WTNT41 KNHC 060846 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 Southwesterly shear continues to affect Florence. Since the last advisory, the cloud pattern has become more asymmetric, and cloud tops surrounding the ragged eye have warmed. AMSR imagery around 0430 UTC indicated that the hurricane's eye is tilted slightly southwest to northeast with height, but the low- to mid-level inner-core was mostly intact. Based on an average of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been lowered to 100 kt, and objective estimates are even lower. Given the wind shear and current appearance of Florence, additional weakening in the short-term seems likely, and all of the intensity guidance agrees. From 24-72 h, the spread increases with the statistical models generally showing continued gradual weakening for another day or two, while the dynamical models show little change or slight restrengthening. By day 5, all of the guidance calls for Florence to restrengthen. The guidance envelope and consensus is lower with this model cycle, but the NHC intensity forecast has only been adjusted slightly lower, mainly in the first 72 h of the forecast. The official forecast is now a little above the IVCN intensity consensus and HCCA at most forecast hours, generally favoring the stronger solution of the dynamical models. Florence has continued to track northwestward, and the initial motion is 315/10 kt. The cyclone is still forecast to gradually turn westward over the next 48 h, in response to a building mid-level ridge to its north. Beyond that time, a mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic could create enough of a weakness in the ridge to steer the hurricane farther north, closer to Bermuda, as shown by the latest GFS. However, the ECMWF and UKMET suggest that the ridge will not be significantly affected, and Florence will move more westward. The ensembles from the GFS and ECMWF do not clearly favor one solution over another, and in fact many members track Florence somewhere in-between. While little change was made to the previous forecast and the new official track forecast remains close to the various consensus aids, the model spread has increased and confidence in the forecast is low. There is still considerable model ensemble spread for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday and portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 24.1N 47.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 24.8N 49.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 25.4N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 25.6N 52.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 25.6N 53.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 26.1N 56.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 27.2N 59.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 29.0N 63.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2018-09-06 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 221 FONT11 KNHC 060843 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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