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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-07 04:43:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 02:43:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 03:22:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2018-09-07 04:42:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 472 FONT11 KNHC 070242 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 31(40) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-07 04:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 6 the center of Florence was located near 25.1, -49.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 31
2018-09-07 04:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 119 WTNT31 KNHC 070241 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 ...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 49.8W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 49.8 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west is forecast on Friday. A slow westward motion is expected over the weekend, with a possible turn toward the west-northwest on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated on Friday, followed by a slow increase in wind speed over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on Friday and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 31
2018-09-07 04:41:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 252 WTNT21 KNHC 070241 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 49.8W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 49.8W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 49.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.2N 50.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.2N 52.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.2N 53.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.3N 54.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.1N 57.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.6N 62.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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