je.st
news
Tag: florence
Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 24
2018-09-05 10:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 878 WTNT31 KNHC 050848 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 ...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 44.8W ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 44.8 West. Florence is temporarily moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and this general motion is expected to continue with Florence's forward speed decreasing by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Friday. After that time, Florence is forecast to restrengthen through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
advisory
florence
Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2018-09-05 10:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 795 FONT11 KNHC 050848 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
speed
wind
florence
Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 24
2018-09-05 10:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 927 WTNT21 KNHC 050847 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 44.8W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 44.8W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 44.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N 46.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.2N 48.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.2N 50.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.9N 51.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.6N 54.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.8N 56.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 28.7N 58.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
florence
Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-05 04:53:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Sep 2018 02:53:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Sep 2018 03:22:12 GMT
Tags: graphics
florence
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-09-05 04:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 797 WTNT41 KNHC 050252 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 GOES-16 imagery shows that the eye of Florence has become better defined during the last several hours, with even some mesovortices in the eye present on the shortwave infrared channel. Satellite intensity estimates continue to rise, and the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt, just below the latest TAFB estimate of 90 kt. Florence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt. This general course is expected to continue through 36 or 48 hours while the hurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. After that time, the forecast becomes more uncertain, depending on the presence of a narrow mid-level ridge over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. A look at the ensemble guidance shows a bifurcation developing by day 5, with the ECMWF favoring a more northward turn, and the UKMET ensembles showing a stronger ridge and a continuation of a west-northwest track. The new NHC forecast is adjusted westward at long range, in line with the corrected-consensus aids, but don't be surprised if this forecast undergoes some large changes in the next few cycles, given the split in the guidance. This intensity forecast is also difficult. Florence certainly has exceeded expectations during the last day or so, with the hurricane on the verge of rapidly intensifying during the last 24 hours despite a marginal environment. Some more strengthening is called for in the short term to reflect the current trend. However, the global models continue to insist that southwesterly shear will increase over the next couple of days which, in combination with considerable dry air aloft, should cause some weakening. Later tomorrow, a slow weakening trend should begin and continue through 48 hours, although not weakening as much as shown in the past advisory. This can't be considered a high-confidence prediction in light of what Florence has done so far. On Friday, an upper-level low could cut off to the south of the cyclone, which would lessen the shear near Florence, and the hurricane should be moving over steadily increasing SSTs. Restrengthening is forecast at long range, and it wouldn't be surprising if the new NHC prediction turns out to be too low. It is best to be conservative, however, since the track uncertainty is increasing by the end of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.7N 43.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 21.5N 45.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 22.6N 47.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 23.7N 49.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 24.7N 50.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 26.0N 53.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 27.3N 55.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 29.0N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
florence
Sites : [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] next »