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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-09-04 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 669 WTNT41 KNHC 042032 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 Despite being over marginally warm water and in an environment of moderate west-southwesterly shear, Florence's intensity has increased during the day. The hurricane has a cloud-filled eye in visible imagery, and the central dense overcast is becoming more symmetric. Based on Dvorak estimates of T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, and a SATCON estimate of 77 kt, the initial intensity is now, somewhat surprisingly, 75 kt. Since the current intensification trend may not be over, the official forecast calls for Florence to strengthen just a little more during the next 6-12 hours. Even though the hurricane will be moving over progressively warmer waters, increasing vertical shear and dry air in the middle levels of the atmosphere should induce some weakening in the 24-72 hour time frame. Lower shear after 72 hours will likely allow Florence to regain hurricane strength by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is primarily adjusted to account for the recent strengthening trend, and is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and HCCA guidance. Florence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt. This trajectory is expected to continue through 36 hours while the hurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. After 36 hours, Florence is expected to turn northwestward and slow down as it enters a break in the ridge. The track models are in good agreement and show little spread through 48 hours. On days 3-5, the biggest outlier is the UKMET, which lies to the south of the guidance suite. In fact, the bulk of the models, including the deterministic GFS and ECMWF, are all now showing a more definitive poleward motion by day 5. While the official NHC track forecast reflects this thinking, there is still considerable spread among the associated global model ensembles, and the longer-term forecast should be considered low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 20.3N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 21.0N 44.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.1N 46.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 23.2N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 24.3N 50.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 26.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 27.5N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 29.5N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 22
2018-09-04 22:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 158 WTNT31 KNHC 042031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 ...FLORENCE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED... ...STILL NO THREAT TO LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 43.2W ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 43.2 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. A northwestward motion is expected to begin by Thursday with Florence's forward speed decreasing by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight, but Florence is expected to weaken beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 22
2018-09-04 22:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 159 WTNT21 KNHC 042031 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 43.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 43.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 42.7W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 44.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 46.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.2N 48.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.3N 50.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 27.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 29.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 43.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2018-09-04 22:32:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 100 FONT11 KNHC 042031 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-04 20:47:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... As of 2:50 PM AST Tue Sep 4 the center of Florence was located near 20.0, -42.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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