je.st
news
Tag: florence
Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 26
2018-09-05 22:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 107 WTNT41 KNHC 052033 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 Florence has continued to intensify during the day, with colder cloud tops completely encircling a clearer eye. Both subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have unanimously increased to T6.0/115 kt, and on this basis, the initial intensity is raised to 115 kt, making Florence a category 4 hurricane. Florence appears to be right along the southern edge of a zone of stronger vertical shear and continues to defy the intensity guidance, which has consistently been predicting weakening. That said, the last few satellite images indicate that the eye may be becoming slightly disrupted by the shear. Since the shear is anticipated to increase during the next day or so, gradual weakening is shown in the short-term official forecast, which lies along the upper end of the guidance through 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, vertical shear is anticipated to weaken, which would allow Florence to intensify and potentially regain major hurricane status. However, Florence will need to thread the needle between areas of stronger shear for this to happen, and there is significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The new official intensity forecast is little changed from before except to adjust upward to account for the higher initial intensity. The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt. Strong upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen north of Florence over the next few days, forcing the hurricane to turn toward the west-northwest through about 48 hours. Track guidance is good agreement during this period, and the official forecast is essentially an update to the previous one. Beyond day 2, a break forms in the ridge, which results in a weakening of the steering currents, a slowdown in Florence's forward speed, and a turn back toward the northwest. The new official forecast is shifted south a bit on days 3-5 to account for recent model trends and is closest to the TVCN consensus. It should be noted that there is considerable model ensemble spread and run-to-run variability for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the island. Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 46.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 24.5N 49.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 25.2N 51.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 25.5N 52.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 27.0N 57.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 29.0N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Rhome
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
florence
Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2018-09-05 22:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 388 FONT11 KNHC 052032 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
speed
wind
florence
Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-05 22:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 5 the center of Florence was located near 22.7, -46.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Tags: summary
florence
hurricane
Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 26
2018-09-05 22:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 944 WTNT31 KNHC 052032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 ...FLORENCE STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 46.6W ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 46.6 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin Thursday night, followed by a turn back toward the northwest early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Florence is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Rhome
Tags: number
public
advisory
florence
Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 26
2018-09-05 22:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 943 WTNT21 KNHC 052032 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 46.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 46.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 46.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.5N 49.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.2N 51.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.5N 52.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.0N 57.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 29.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 46.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
florence
Sites : [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] next »