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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2018-09-06 04:49:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 692 FONT11 KNHC 060249 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-06 04:48:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FLORENCE SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 5 the center of Florence was located near 23.4, -47.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 27

2018-09-06 04:48:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 062 WTNT31 KNHC 060248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 ...FLORENCE SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 47.2W ABOUT 1085 MI...1750 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 47.2 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin Thursday night, followed by a turn toward the west by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with restrengthening possible over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 27

2018-09-06 04:48:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 061 WTNT21 KNHC 060248 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 47.2W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 47.2W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.2N 48.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.0N 49.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.5N 51.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.7N 53.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.1N 55.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 27.2N 58.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 47.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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