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Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

2018-09-05 04:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 063 FONT11 KNHC 050252 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-05 04:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FLORENCE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 4 the center of Florence was located near 20.7, -43.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 23

2018-09-05 04:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 997 WTNT31 KNHC 050251 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 ...FLORENCE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 43.9W ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 43.9 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. A northwestward motion is expected to begin by Thursday with Florence's forward speed decreasing by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening could occur overnight, but a slow weakening trend is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 23

2018-09-05 04:48:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 552 WTNT21 KNHC 050248 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC WED SEP 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 43.9W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 43.9W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 43.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.6N 47.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N 50.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 27.3N 55.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 43.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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