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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)

2018-09-06 10:43:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FLORENCE WEAKENING FOR NOW BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 6 the center of Florence was located near 24.1, -47.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 28

2018-09-06 10:43:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 883 WTNT31 KNHC 060843 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018 ...FLORENCE WEAKENING FOR NOW BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 47.9W ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 47.9 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the west by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is forecast today, but Florence is expected to remain a strong hurricane for the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on Friday and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 28

2018-09-06 10:42:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 608 WTNT21 KNHC 060842 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC THU SEP 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 47.9W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 47.9W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 47.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.8N 49.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.4N 50.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.6N 52.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.6N 53.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.1N 56.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 29.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Florence Graphics

2018-09-06 04:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Sep 2018 02:51:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Sep 2018 03:22:04 GMT

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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 27

2018-09-06 04:50:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 550 WTNT41 KNHC 060250 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 It appears that southwesterly shear is finally affecting Florence. The cloud pattern has become asymmetric this evening, with the northeastern quadrant growing at the expense of the southwestern one, along with warming cloud tops noted across the central dense overcast. Satellite intensity estimates are a bit lower than before, so the initial wind speed is reduced to 110 kt. The current shear is forecast to persist by the global models during the next day or two until an upper-level low cuts off to south of Florence, which will likely reduce the shear. This, in combination with much warmer waters in the path of the hurricane, should set the stage for restrengthening. At long range, a rather large upper-level anticyclone is forecast to form near Florence, which would provide ample opportunity for the hurricane to regain its former strength and grow in size. Thus, the official forecast shows slow weakening in response to the initial shear, then levels off, with a significant increase in strength predicted by day 5. This solution is very close to the previous NHC advisory, but not quite as high as the HWRF and HMON models at long range. Florence has been moving more to the right during the past several hours, likely due to the vortex attempting to stay vertically aligned in the face of the southwesterly shear, but a longer-term motion is 310 degrees at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen to the north and northwest of Florence, causing the hurricane to turn west- northwestward by Friday and even westward by the weekend. It appears that a mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic in a few days will likely miss Florence, with the only perceivable effects on the hurricane being a decrease in forward speed. The net result is that the model guidance continues to trend westward at long range, and the official forecast follows suit, lying just north of the model consensus in deference to the ECMWF deterministic model and ensemble mean. It should be noted that there is still considerable model ensemble spread for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the island. Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 23.4N 47.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.2N 48.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 25.0N 49.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 25.5N 51.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 25.7N 53.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 26.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 27.2N 58.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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