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Hurricane Florence Update Statement
2018-09-04 20:47:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 250 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 178 WTNT61 KNHC 041846 TCUAT1 Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 250 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 ...FLORENCE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... Recent satellite imagery indicates that Florence has continued to intensify during the past few hours, and maximum sustained winds have increased to 85 mph (140 km/h). This increase in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued with the 500 PM AST (2100 UTC) advisory package. SUMMARY OF 250 PM AST...1850 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 42.7W ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Berg
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Hurricane Florence Graphics
2018-09-04 16:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Sep 2018 14:38:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Sep 2018 15:22:03 GMT
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-09-04 16:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 386 WTNT41 KNHC 041437 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 Florence's structure has gradually increased in organization, with SSMIS passes from a few hours ago revealing the development of a mid-level microwave eye. Dvorak estimates have responded in kind--TAFB is up to T4.0, SAB is at T4.5, and the objective ADT is in between at T4.4. Since there still appears to be moderate southwesterly shear inducing some tilt to the cyclone and disrupting the infrared satellite pattern, the initial intensity is raised conservatively to 65 kt, making Florence a hurricane. The current motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt, with Florence positioned near the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. The steering pattern ahead of Florence is rather complicated and will be evolving over the next few days. A large and complex mid-/upper-level trough located northeast of the Leeward Islands is expected to give way to the development of two upper-level highs centered near the Greater Antilles and southwest of the Azores, with Florence slowing down and turning northwestward between these new features. Despite this complex pattern, the spread in the track models is less than normal, which increases the confidence in the NHC track forecast for the next 5 days. There is some spread which begins to develop around day 5, with the ECMWF model moving Florence a little faster toward the north while the GFS maintains a slower speed and keeps the system to the south. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly to the east of the previous forecast on days 4 and 5, close to the TVCX consensus but not as far as the HCCA and ECMWF models. There is still too much model spread after day 5 to speculate what Florence might do beyond the official forecast period. Despite Florence becoming a hurricane, the southwesterly shear affecting the cyclone is expected to increase over the next day or two, which should prevent further intensification. In fact, the increasing shear, as well as mid-level relative humidities below 50 percent, should cause weakening between 24 and 72 hours. After 72 hours, decreasing shear and warmer sea surface temperatures should foster some re-intensification, with Florence expected to reattain hurricane intensity by day 5. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is very close to a blend of HCCA, the Florida State Superensemble, and the ICON consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.7N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 21.3N 46.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 22.4N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 23.6N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 25.6N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 27.5N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 29.5N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-04 16:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON... ...NO THREAT TO LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 4 the center of Florence was located near 19.7, -42.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 21
2018-09-04 16:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 336 WTNT31 KNHC 041436 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 ...FLORENCE BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON... ...NO THREAT TO LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 42.5W ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 42.5 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A slower northwestward motion is forecast to begin Thursday and continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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