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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-29 04:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 460 WTNT21 KNHC 290247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 49.7W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 49.7W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.6N 47.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.8N 43.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 39.5N 39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 43.4N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 47.9N 36.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-29 04:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 941 WTNT45 KNHC 290235 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 The center of the tropical depression remained exposed for much of the evening, though in the past hour or so the center has become located closer to a small, ragged area of convection. A more pronounced curved band can also be seen east of the depression though this feature is located over 120 n mi away. This structure is due to ongoing west-southwesterly shear and the presence of some dry air that continues to plague the cyclone. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and wind data from a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Some slight strengthening is possible later tonight through Sunday morning as a slight decrease in shear combined with the diurnal convective maximum may allow the depression to become a tropical storm. Thereafter through 60 h, the shear is forecast to increase, while the system moves into an drier environment. Thus, no further strengthening is forecast during this period, and the cyclone could weaken back into a tropical depression. By around 72 h, global models are suggesting that the shear will decrease again. So, some gradual strengthening is forecast after that time. It should also be noted that the GFS, which earlier forecast the system to degenerate into a remnant low in a few days, now keeps the cyclone in tact and deepens it when the shear lessens toward the end of the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one through 24 h, but is higher beyond 24 h. This forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and IVCN guidance through 72 h, but is lower than those solutions after that time. The depression is moving toward the north at 9 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, carved out by a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic. This trough and associated ridge weakness is forecast to remain in place for the next few days, resulting in the cyclone continuing a general northward motion. By late in the forecast period, the trough is expected to lift out of the region and be replaced by a ridge, which would result in the system turning northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the various multi-model consensus tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 16.6N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 17.7N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 19.4N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 20.8N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 22.3N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 31/1200Z 23.5N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 25.0N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 28.2N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 31.5N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-29 04:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290235 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 49.9W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 49.9W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.7N 49.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.4N 49.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 49.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.3N 49.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 49.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.2N 50.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.5N 51.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 49.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-28 22:54:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 282054 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Nora developed a cloud-filled eye during the past few hours, with the center now grazing the coast and the eyewall moving across western Jalisco, Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating the hurricane, but unfortunately the storm is now too close to the mountainous coastline for the plane to safely locate the surface center or sample the likely-stronger wind field on the eastern side of the circulation. Based mainly on T4.5/77 kt Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is estimated to be 75 kt. The center has been moving a little faster to the west of due north, or 350/12 kt. The track models are in agreement that Nora should turn toward the north-northwest and northwest during the next few days, generally keeping the center of the hurricane over the waters of the Gulf of California. However, due to the complex geography and mountainous topography of the region, the track forecast is challenging, and it's almost impossible to know if Nora's center will remain over water or graze the coastlines of Nayarit and Sinaloa over the next few days. By days 4 and 5, Nora's center is forecast to move inland over Sonora after traversing a significant length of the Gulf of California. Assuming a path that keeps Nora just offshore, low shear and very warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of California should be sufficient to at least maintain hurricane intensity for the next 3 days. However, any slight deviations of the track could cause Nora to weaken and fall below hurricane intensity sooner than is indicated in the official forecast. Given the uncertainties, however, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning farther north along the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa out of an abundance of caution. Weakening will become more likely the farther north Nora gets up the Gulf of California, both due to possible land interaction and ingestion of drier air off the Mexican plateau. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be a hurricane while it moves near or along the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco, Nayarit, and Sinaloa through Monday, and hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero, northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora may spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of next week. 3. Nora is forecast to continue moving northward over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 19.7N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 29/0600Z 21.5N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 22.9N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 23.5N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 24.2N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 31/0600Z 24.8N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 25.6N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 27.6N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/1800Z 29.4N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-08-28 22:52:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 282052 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO ALTATA...MEXICO...TO A HURRICANE WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO ALTATA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.4W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 210SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.4W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 105.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.9N 106.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.5N 107.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 108.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.8N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.6N 110.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 29.4N 110.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 105.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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