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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-08-28 10:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280854 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 49.9W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 49.9W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 49.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.1N 50.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.7N 50.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.1N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.7N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.9N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 52.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 49.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-08-28 04:44:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280243 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Nora's cloud pattern has not become much better organized since earlier today. The central convection has diminished, but this is likely a diurnal fluctuation. Upper-level outflow appears to be fairly well-defined, with convective banding features most prominent over the southern portion of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 55 kt, so the advisory intensity will be held at that value for now. The storm has been moving a little to the east of the previous track over the past few hours, but the longer-term motion estimate is still northwestward, or 325/9 kt. Nora should move on a northwestward or north-northwestward heading for the next 2-3 days on the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northward as the ridge to its north weakens. The official forecast track has been nudged just a bit to the east of the previous one during the next 72 hours or so, but not as far east as the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCE. Nora is expected to be in a moist, low-shear environment for the next few days, so the atmospheric conditions should favor intensification into a hurricane. Nonetheless, the majority of the intensity guidance does not show much strengthening beyond 24 hours, probably due to land interaction. The official intensity forecast shows gradual strengthening for the next couple of days or so, and is similar to the previous one. This is close to the LGEM guidance based on the ECMWF global model fields. It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in the future strength of Nora because of the possible influence of land. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2.Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 16.3N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-08-28 04:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 280240 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Ida made landfall in the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio around 2320 UTC with maximum sustained winds estimated to be around 70 kt. Radar data from Cuba indicate that the inner core of Ida has remained intact after its passage over western Cuba with a well-defined eye and relatively symmetric eyewall evident. In addition, satellite images show deep convection increasing in both intensity and coverage, a sign that Ida is strengthening. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Ida and so far have found maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 75 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. A subtropical ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward through the weekend. This feature should continue to provide a steering flow that will take Ida steadily northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. The models remain in very good agreement and show Ida making landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday morning. After the storm moves inland, a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north and then the northeast is predicted as Ida moves in the flow on the northwest and north sides of the ridge. Since the models are tightly clustered and because the steering flow is well pronounced, there is high confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids, which are often the most accurate models. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Ida is expected to remain in conducive conditions for intensification until it reaches the central Gulf coast. The global models show a very favorable upper-level wind pattern over the storm and abundant environmental moisture. These conducive atmospheric conditions combined with very warm Gulf of Mexico waters should allow Ida to rapidly intensify this weekend. In fact, it seems likely that Ida will pass over a warm eddy over the central Gulf of Mexico, where the ocean heat content is very high. All of the models show significant strengthening, but there is a fair amount of spread on how strong the hurricane will get. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance, and shows Ida becoming an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane prior to reaching the coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to land interaction, drier air, and an increase in shear. As Ida continues to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico, an expansion of its wind field is predicted. The NHC wind radii forecast is largely based on the radii consensus, and winds of at least tropical storm force are likely to reach the coast Sunday morning. Therefore, all preparations to protect life and property for this dangerous event need to be made on Saturday. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected to continue for the next few hours in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 23.0N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 24.4N 85.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 26.1N 87.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 27.8N 89.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 29.2N 90.8W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 60H 30/1200Z 30.7N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/0000Z 32.3N 90.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/0000Z 34.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/0000Z 36.8N 83.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 7

2021-08-28 04:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 280238 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 84.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 0SE 0SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 84.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 85.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 87.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.8N 89.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.2N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.7N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.3N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 34.9N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.8N 83.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 84.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-08-28 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280234 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......240NE 120SE 150SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 105.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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