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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-08-28 22:51:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 282051 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Ida's satellite presentation has continued to improve this afternoon, with the eye becoming more apparent in both infrared and visible satellite imagery. The eye is surrounded by a symmetric ring of cold cloud tops and new convection with lightning as seen by the GOES-16 GLM sensor has been rotating around the western portion of the eyewall within the past few hours. The upper-level outflow has also become well established over the hurricane and several spiral bands are noted over the northern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have increased to T5.0 and these support increasing the initial intensity to 90 kt for this advisory. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to be in the hurricane within the next few hours and should provide additional information on Ida's current strength. Earlier aircraft and satellite wind data indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind field has continued to expand over the eastern semicircle and the initial wind radii have been adjusted outward. The hurricane appears to have begun its anticipated rapid intensification phase. A favorable upper-level wind pattern, warm waters along the track, and a moist atmosphere are expected to allow for additional rapid strengthening overnight and early Sunday. This is again supported by the majority of the intensity models, and the NHC wind speed forecast continues to call for rapid strengthening, bringing Ida to Category 4 status within 12 to 18 hours. An eyewall replacement cycle could occur as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast, so some fluctuations in intensity are possible during that time. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Ida is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4, and it is likely to be absorbed along a frontal zone by day 5. Ida has moved a little to the right of the previous track, but the long-term motion motion is still northwestward or 320/14 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Ida is expected to continue on a northwestward heading through late Sunday as it is steered around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge near the southeastern United Stated coast. After landfall, Ida's forward motion is forecast to slow when it turns northward around the western extent of the aforementioned ridge. By Tuesday, the cyclone should reach the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies, causing it to turn north-northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The track guidance has nudged slightly eastward during the first 12-24 hours, primarily due to the more northeastward initial position, and this has required a slight rightward adjustment in the new official forecast at those times. The remainder of the NHC forecast is largely unchanged from before, and lies near various consensus models and the GFS ensemble mean. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through early next week after Ida makes landfall. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 26.2N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 27.5N 88.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/0600Z 34.0N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1800Z 35.7N 88.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1800Z 38.0N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-08-28 22:50:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282050 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.5N 88.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.0N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.7N 88.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 38.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-08-28 22:34:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 282034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 This afternoon's satellite presentation consists of an exposed surface circulation with a rather shapeless convective mass displaced to the east and north of the center. Without question, the 15 to 20 kt of west-northwesterly shear is doing a number on the cloud pattern. Also evident, are a number of arc clouds propagating away from the system's deep convection, certainly indicative of dry air intrusion. Consequently, the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt for this advisory. The global models as well as the Decay SHIPS (ECMWF/GFS) intensity guidance still show the shear relaxing a bit tonight and into Sunday, which should allow the depression to briefly become a tropical storm. By Monday, however, the shear is forecast to increase while the cyclone moves into an even more dry and stable air mass. These inhibiting contributions should stifle further strengthening and weaken the cyclone back to a depression through the remainder of the forecast period. It's worth mentioning that the GFS indicates that the depression will become a remnant low in 72 hours while turning northwestward to west-northwestward within the tradewind flow and dissipate by the end of the week. For now, the NHC forecast will stick with the consensus intensity models and the SHIPS guidance which agree on maintaining a depression through day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. The depression remains embedded in low- to mid-level southerly flow produced by a mid-Atlantic trough dominating the central Atlantic. This synoptic feature, along with a subtropical high pressure located over the east Atlantic and western Africa, should influence a generally northward motion through the 5-day period. The official track forecast again is adjusted a little to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN and HCCA multimodel solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.6N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 18.2N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 21.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 31/0600Z 22.5N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 23.8N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 27.2N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 30.5N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-08-28 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 282034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.2N 49.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N 49.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.5N 48.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.8N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.2N 50.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-08-28 16:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281457 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 The satellite presentation of Ida has continued to improve this morning with the center embedded within a fairly symmetric Central Dense Overcast and hints of the eye in both visible in infrared satellite imagery. Earlier microwave imagery revealed a well- defined low- to mid-level eye and excellent spiral banding over the northern semicircle. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft, somewhat surprisingly, have not found a significantly deepening tropical cyclone yet, but given the very recent increase in organization and structure, the winds are likely to catch up to the satellite appearance very soon. Using the latest flight-level and SFMR wind data from the aircraft and satellite intensity estimates the initial wind speed remains 75 kt for this advisory. The aircraft data does indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded, and the NHC wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Given the improved inner-core structure Ida appears poised to rapidly intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm water. Although the interpolated intensity guidance has lowered somewhat due to the fact that Ida has not significantly strengthened yet, the explicit forecasts from the dynamical models continue to support significant deepening, and the latest runs of the HWRF and HMON models indicate Ida will reach Category 4 strength before landfall. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification to Category 4 strength during the next 24 hours. After that time, fluctuations in intensity are possible due to eyewall replacement cycles as Ida approaches the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Ida is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday night, and become a post-tropical cyclone as it moves over the Tennessee Valley by mid-week. Ida has been moving steadily northwestward or 315/14 kt. A deep layer ridge near the southeastern United States coast is forecast to shift westward during the next day or so, and this should continue to steer Ida northwestward through landfall on Sunday. The track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement through 36 hours, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged during that time, and continues to indicate that Ida will reach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday. After landfall, Ida will be near the western extent of the ridge and should turn northward and then northeastward as it recurves into the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance has shifted slightly westward beyond 48 hours, and the track forecast over the southern U.S. and the Tennessee Valley has been adjusted accordingly. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Wind and rainfall impacts will also penetrate inland through early next week after Ida makes landfall. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today in the warning area. 3. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi, resulting in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are likely across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Monday and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 24.8N 86.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 28.0N 89.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 29.4N 91.0W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/0000Z 32.7N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 34.4N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 36.8N 85.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 37.9N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

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