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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 9

2021-08-28 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 281450 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOBILE BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 86.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 86.1W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 89.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.4N 91.0W...NEAR COAST OF LOUISIANA MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.7N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.4N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 36.8N 85.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 37.9N 79.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 86.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-08-28 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 281450 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Nora continues to show signs of strengthening with the center embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast, where clouds tops are now as cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB are T4.0/65 kt and T4.5/77 kt, and the most recent objective numbers are near 75 kt. Nora's initial intensity is conservatively estimated to be 70 kt, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should help us verify the maximum winds later this afternoon. The latest fixes indicate that Nora is moving west of due north, or 350/10 kt. A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies has created a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the southwestern U.S., which should allow Nora to continue moving northward or north-northwestward through tonight. This motion will take Nora's center and hurricane-force winds very close to or over portions of Jalisco, Mexico, later today and this evening. On Sunday, the track guidance suggests that Nora will make a turn back toward the northwest, bringing the center over the Gulf of California by Monday at a much slower forward speed. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but the narrow width of the Gulf of California means that hazards away from the center could affect both the coast of mainland Mexico and the east coast of Baja California Sur. Due to this uncertainty, new watches and warnings have been extended northward along both coasts. The track guidance--and the NHC official forecast--suggest that Nora's center could move inland over Sonora, Mexico, in 4 to 5 days. Assuming Nora's center remains over water, low shear and warm waters should allow for additional strengthening during the next 24-36 hours. After that time, possible land interaction, influences of nearby topography, and potential ingestion of dry air from the Mexican plateau could all conspire to cause at least gradual weakening while Nora begins to move into the Gulf of California. That said, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity prediction, and Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through early Tuesday, a scenario supported by the ECMWF model. One thing the models do agree on is that Nora's wind field should contract after it passes Cabo Corrientes and heads into the Gulf of California, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast strengthen through tonight as it moves near the coasts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa, and hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas and points farther north should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero, northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora may spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of next week. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane by Monday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 18.4N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.1N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 23.1N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.8N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 24.5N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 25.2N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 29.3N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-08-28 16:49:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 281449 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD FROM MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 300SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 105.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.1N 107.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.3N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-08-28 16:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 281436 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 First light visible imagery shows that the rather disorganized surface center is exposed near the western edge of the cloud mass. The associated deep convection has been diminishing during the past 6 hours due to the stiff west-northwesterly shear and a rather parched surrounding thermodynamic environment. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, consistent with the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and the 1156 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass. The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows that the shear should decrease somewhat tonight and into Sunday, which should allow for some strengthening. By Monday, the aforementioned model, along with the deterministic guidance, indicates an increase in the shear magnitude and even lower mid- tropospheric relative humidity values, which should cap further strengthening and weaken the cyclone back to a depression through the remainder of the forecast period. There's more agreement in the large-scale models this morning indicating that the depression will degenerate into a remnant low toward the end of the week, and the NHC forecast follows suit. This is the only change from the previous advisory, and the NHC intensity forecast closely resembles the skilled IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus aids. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/7 kt. The depression is embedded in low- to mid-level southerly flow produced by a mid-Atlantic trough stretching from the northeast Atlantic to the central tropical Atlantic. This feature, along with a subtropical ridge situated over the east Atlantic and western Africa, should steer the depression generally toward the north through the 5-day period. The official track forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 3, and is close to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA multimodel guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 14.8N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.7N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 17.1N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 18.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 20.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 21.4N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 22.7N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 25.4N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 51.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-08-28 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 281434 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 50.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 50.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.7N 50.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.1N 50.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.1N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.4N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 50.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.6N 51.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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