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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-09-16 16:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 161439 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 87.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 135SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 87.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.3N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.4N 85.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 83.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.6N 80.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 87.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-16 16:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161437 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy's overall appearance has changed little over the past several hours. Microwave and infrared satellite images depict a well-defined inner core with an eye evident in the microwave imagery. However, visible imagery reveals that the eye remains cloud filled. Over the past few hours, the coldest cloud tops and have become confined to the western portion of the circulation, which could be the early signs of the cyclone experiencing some westerly wind shear. The latest satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged from 6 h ago, and therefore the initial intensity will remain 85 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional strengthening over the next 18-24 h, and with the inner-core well defined, rapid intensification could resume shortly. By 36 h, increasing westerly wind shear and drier air should limit any further intensification, and possibly induce some weakening. Later on in the forecast period, Teddy could encounter some cooler waters due to upwelling caused by Paulette. This could also attribute to additional weakening. The latest NHC forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance. It should be noted that if the rapid intensification that has paused recently doe not resume soon, adjustments to the intensity forecast will be necessary. Teddy continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. This motion is forecast to continue for the next few days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Late in the forecast period, the portion of the ridge north of Teddy is expected to erode as a mid-latitude trough digs across the northeastern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwest and possibly north by day 5. The track guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, then the spread increases after that time, likely due to how the models are handling the approaching trough. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and is near the various multi-model track consensus aids. On the forecast track, Teddy could make a close to approach to Bermuda in about 5 days. However, based on average 5-day track and intensity errors, it is too soon to know what type of impacts the cyclone could have on the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.5N 49.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.5N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 19.0N 52.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 20.4N 53.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 21.9N 55.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 23.5N 56.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 25.1N 58.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 31.7N 64.1W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161436 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Very little deep convection with cloud tops of -40C remains this morning, and what's left is located well to the west-northwest of the center of circulation. There could still be a few 35-kt winds remaining in that particular area, which was identified earlier by a scatterometer pass, so the initial intensity is held at a generous 35 kt for this advisory. Karina is expected to continue traversing cooler waters while moving farther into an inhibiting thermodynamic environment and unfavorable upper-level winds. Therefore, weakening is forecast and Karina should degenerate to a remnant low tonight. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and the cyclone should continue on this general motion through Thursday night. A westward turn is forecast on Friday as Karina degenerates to a remnant low and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 22.6N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 161435 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 49.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 40SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 49.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 49.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 50.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 52.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.4N 53.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.9N 55.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 56.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.1N 58.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 31.7N 64.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.9W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.9W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 123.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 123.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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