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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-09-16 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 162034 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF ALABAMA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 86.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 75SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 86.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.9N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.2N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.2N 81.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 86.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Karina Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-09-16 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 124.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 124.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 39

2020-09-16 16:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161440 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Conventional GOES-16 visible and enhanced BD-curve satellite imagery show that Paulette has merged with the large baroclinic zone extending over the north-central Atlantic. Deep convection just to the north of the surface center that was noted on earlier microwave images has dissipated. Therefore, the system is now classified as extratropical cyclone and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 75 kt based on 1221 UTC scatterometer data, earlier Dvorak intensity estimates and a SATCON analysis of 64 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the global models and is just above the HCCA multi-model consensus. Although not specified in the NHC forecast, there is some chance that Paulette could reacquire tropical or subtropical characteristics later this week or over the weekend when it turns southward back over warmer oceanic temperatures. This possibility will be monitored for inclusion in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary. The post-tropical cyclone's initial motion is east-northeastward, or 060/30 kt. The low is expected to continue quickly in this general motion through Thursday morning within the deep-layer mid-latitude flow. By mid-period, Post-Tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn southeastward to southward as it moves on the west side of mid- to upper-level low to the east of the cyclone. The new track forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the hurricane are up to 50 feet. Swells from Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast. This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 43.3N 45.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 17/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0000Z 45.1N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 19/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1200Z 37.0N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/1200Z 35.0N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1200Z 34.0N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 22

2020-09-16 16:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 161440 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 NWS Doppler Radar and fixes from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama, around 0945 UTC with an intensity of 90 kt and a minimum central pressure of 965 mb. Since that time, the center has been inching its way inland over southeastern Alabama and the extreme western portion of the Florida panhandle. The eye has degraded in radar imagery, and Doppler velocities are gradually decreasing. The intensity has therefore been reduced to 70 kt for this advisory. Sally should continue to rapidly weaken today, and once the majority of the circulation is onshore by Thursday morning, it should weaken to a tropical depression. The remnant low is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal boundary near the southeastern United States coastline in a couple of days. Radar and the earlier aircraft fixes show that the longer-term motion is 030/4 kt. Sally should continue to move north- northeastward to northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed as it enters the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies over the next 24-36 hours. A faster east-northeastward motion is expected by 36-48 hours before Sally or its remnants merge with the aforementioned frontal zone. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the HFIP corrected consensus, which is slightly north of the previous advisory. As Sally moves inland, ongoing heavy rainfall and flooding will spread northeastward across southeastern Alabama and portions of Georgia and western South Carolina during the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding along and just inland from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Significant and widespread flooding is likely across inland portions of Alabama into central Georgia, and possible across western South Carolina, western and central North Carolina, and far southeast Virginia. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Bay. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected to continue this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area in southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 30.6N 87.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0000Z 31.3N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1200Z 32.4N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 33.6N 83.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 34.6N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 39

2020-09-16 16:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 161439 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 45.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT.......160NE 240SE 200SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 540SE 660SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 45.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 220SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 30SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.1N 33.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.0N 32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 35.0N 32.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 34.0N 32.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.3N 45.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PAULETTE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PAULETTE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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