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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-16 16:35:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161434 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Hostile vertical shear of 50 to 60 kt has finally taken a toll on Vicky. A 1227 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed peak winds of 35 kt north of the center, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity. The strong shear is expected to continue while Vicky moves over marginal 26-27C SSTs, so additional weakening is forecast. Vicky should become a tropical depression in around 24 hours before weakening to a remnant low in about 2 days, with dissipation expected by day 3. However, the timing of when organized deep convection will finally cease is difficult to determine, so its is possible Vicky could weaken faster than indicated here or hang on a bit longer. The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky should continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning west-southwestward in the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is south of the previous one and is close to the new multi-model consensus aids. The ASCAT data were also used to modify the initial 34-kt wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 21.5N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 21.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 21.7N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 21.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 21.0N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 20.5N 42.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-16 16:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161432 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.6N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.7N 37.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 41.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 42.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 34.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-16 10:58:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 632 WTNT44 KNHC 160858 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 There has been little change in Sally's convective structure during the past few hours as seen in radar and satellite data. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on previous reconnaissance SFMR surface wind data of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with average Doppler radar values of 114 kt between 4500-5000 ft ASL, which supports an equivalent surface wind speed of about 90 kt. The reconnaissance aircraft has recently measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 110 kt, but those winds may not be making it down to the surface based on earlier buoy wind reports underneath the eyewall. Although the northern eyewall has moved onshore between Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay, some slight strengthening is still possible until the center of Sally's eye makes landfall later this morning. Rapid weakening is forecast after the center moves inland, and the system should become a remnant low in a couple of days. This is consistent with the latest model guidance. Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that Sally's motion is north-northeastward, or 020/03 kt. No significant changes were required to the previous track forecast. The latest NHC model guidance continues to show Sally moving slowly north-northeastward this morning, and then turn northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed by tonight. That motion should then continue for the next day or so. As Sally approaches the mid-latitude westerlies at higher latitudes, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast with some slight increase in forward speed until it becomes a dissipating remnant low near the southeastern U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding along and just inland of the coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile Bay, Alabama. In addition, widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inland portions Alabama into central Georgia. Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, across western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding in southeast Virginia. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Bay and southern portions of Mobile Bay. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning and then continue into this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 30.1N 87.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 30.7N 87.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 31.5N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 32.6N 84.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 33.5N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1800Z 34.1N 79.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-09-16 10:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160853 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO FORT MORGAN...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FORT MORGAN ALABAMA TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 87.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 135SE 90SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 87.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 87.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.7N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 34.1N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 87.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-16 10:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160838 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy continues to quickly intensify. The latest satellite images shows that a ragged eye is present, although microwave images show it is closed in the low-levels. Satellite intensity estimates earlier were between 77- 90 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 85 with the increasing organization. The environment appears to be ripe for rapid intensification with light shear, warm water, and a solid ring present on overnight 37 GHz microwave data. Thus a 30-kt wind increase will be forecast for the first 24 hours from the 6Z initial wind speed of 80 kt. After that time, there could be an increase in shear from the mid-oceanic trough, which should level off the wind speed, along with possibly an increase in mid-level dry air. At long range, Teddy could also be affected by the cold wake from Paulette. The intensity forecast is also uncertain considering the guidance is still catching up to the higher current intensity, but most everything shows a large major hurricane for the bulk of the forecast period, and so does the official forecast. Teddy is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-tropospheric high should steer the hurricane in that general direction and speed throughout the forecast period until early next week when a turn to the north-northwest is possible ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The biggest change to note that guidance has almost unanimously shifted westward at long range, seemingly due to a stronger central Atlantic ridge, and the NHC forecast is also moved in that direction. Unfortunately, this change does increase the threat to Bermuda, which was just hit by Hurricane Paulette, but remember the average track error at 5 days is roughly 200 miles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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