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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-09-16 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160834 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 49.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 49.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 38
2020-09-16 10:28:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 935 WTNT22 KNHC 160828 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 49.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT.......160NE 220SE 200SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 540SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 49.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.9N 43.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 220SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.5N 38.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 10NE 30SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 45.6N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.8N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 41.1N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.5N 33.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 35.3N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 33.5N 33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.9N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-16 10:26:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160826 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Vicky remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical storm. The low-level center is displaced to the west-southwest of the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, which is well above the Dvorak estimates. Vicky is expected to remain in hostile wind shear conditions while traversing 26 C waters, so it seems likely that weakening should occur. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the model guidance and shows gradual weakening during the next few days. Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but it is always tricky to figure out when these systems will lose all of its convection since it is forecast to stay over relatively warm waters. The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the left of the previous track at 285/9. Vicky should gradually turn westward later today and west-southwestward in a couple of days when it becomes a shallow cyclone and moves in the low-level flow. The new track forecast is just a little south of the previous one to be closer to the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 22.0N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 22.0N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 21.7N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 21.4N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 20.8N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-16 10:24:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160824 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.9W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.9W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 33.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.9N 35.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 36.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.7N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.4N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.8N 44.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 33.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-16 10:23:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160823 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina is weakening in a hurry. Deep convection near the center has largely dissipated, and the only area of lingering convection is in the northeastern quadrant. An ASCAT overpass from around 0500 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range, and based on that data the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The tropical storm is already in unfavorable conditions of cool 25 C waters and a dry and stable airmass. Since Karina will be moving over even cooler waters and into an environment of stronger southerly wind shear, continued weakening is expected. Karina is now forecast to become a remnant low by 24 hours and dissipate within a few days. Karina is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion should continue for about another day, but after Karina becomes a shallow remnant low it is expected to turn westward within the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.7N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 22.4N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 23.1N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 23.4N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 23.1N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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