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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 19

2020-09-16 04:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160257 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate some strengthening. The eye has become a little better defined on the radar, and the central pressure has fallen to 972 mb. The eye has also become evident on recent IR imagery. Using a blend of flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds, along with the Doppler velocities, gives a current intensity estimate of 75 kt. Given the recent trends, the official forecast allows for some more intensification before landfall, which is likely to occur in less than 12 hours. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, and the system should become a remnant low in a couple of days. This is consistent with the model guidance. Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that the motion is now north-northeastward, or 020/2 kt. Sally should move north-northeastward, and then northeastward, with a gradual increase in forward speed, along the northwestern side of a weak mid-level high pressure area for the next couple of days. Then, as the system approaches the westerly flow at higher latitudes, the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast with a slight further increase in forward speed until becoming a dissipating remnant low near the southeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Historic, life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall is likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and into Georgia and the western Carolinas this week. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including Mobile Bay. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected this evening and overnight within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 29.8N 87.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...ON THE COAST 24H 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 19

2020-09-16 04:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160255 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED BETWEEN THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER AND THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * MOBILE BAY * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 87.8W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 87.8W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 87.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-09-16 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Karina's outflow has improved over the past 6 hours, but persistent deep convection over the low-level center has shown some signs of warming/weakening in the last couple hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is maintained at 50 kt, primarily based on a blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 45-55 kt from SAB/TAFB/HFO. Karina is moving toward the northwest at 10 kt (310/10 kt), steered by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the northeast and north, respectively. Although some relaxation of the recent northeasterly to easterly shear is expected to continue in the short-term, gradual weakening is expected as Karina is now over sub-26C water. As Karina rounds the southwestern portion of the deep-layer ridge in about 24 hours, south to southwesterly shear is expected to increase as the cyclone moves over even cooler waters and ingests increasingly dry air. This will lead to the demise of the cyclone, and Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in a couple of days, dissipating shortly thereafter. As the system weakens, it will be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface high centered to the distant northwest, causing a slowing in forward speed, and a turn toward the west and southwest. The new official track forecast has changed little from the previous, and lies very close to the dynamical consensus TVCE. The new intensity forecast is little changed, and closely follows both the statistical and dynamical guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 21.3N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard

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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-09-16 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 123.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 123.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD

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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-09-16 04:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 269 WTNT41 KNHC 160232 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky provided a surprise this evening, with scatterometer data showing a solid 45-kt in the northwestern quadrant of the storm. You would never guess it from the satellite images, which show a very sheared system that would at best support an 30-35 kt intensity, as indicated by the latest Dvorak estimates. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, higher than the last time but not really a true strengthening since conventional satellite data was a bit deceptive earlier. Despite Vicky holding its own, models are still showing the strong shear persisting, which should eventually cause weakening. The cyclone is likely to last longer than previously anticipated though with some upper-level divergence counteracting the effects of the shear, but Vicky is forecast gradually lose strength and decay in a remnant low in a couple of days, similar to the consensus guidance. The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the left of previous, at 290/10. Vicky should gradually turn westward tomorrow and west-southwestward later this week as it becomes a shallower cyclone. The new forecast is quite similar to the previous one, leaning on the northern side of the well-clustered guidance envelope since Vicky is persisting as a deeper cyclone for the moment. The only small change is to add a 72-hour forecast point as the remnants could linger for a while longer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 21.6N 33.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 22.4N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 22.3N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 22.0N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 21.5N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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