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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-09-16 04:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160230 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 32.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.4N 38.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.3N 39.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.5N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 33.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-09-15 22:59:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152059 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Latest satellite images show little significant change in the organization of deep convection associated with Karina since the previous advisory. Although the thunderstorms are primarily limited to the southwest semicircle, they remain over the center, and outflow in the northeast semicircle appears somewhat improved in the last couple of hours. A blend of subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 3.0/45 kt from SAB/HFO and 3.5/55 kt from TAFB supports maintaining an initial intensity of 50 kt. Karina is crossing the 26C isotherm with an initial motion estimate of 305/10 kt, and much cooler waters lie along the forecast track. Karina is being steered by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the centered to the northeast and north respectively, and the short term forecast anticipates some relaxation of the recent northeasterly shear as Karina rounds the ridges. This should lead to slow weakening in the short term, and as south to southwesterly shear increases after about 24 hours, Karina will continue to weaken. Simulated satellite imagery based on HWRF guidance indicates the cyclone will become convection-free within about 48 hours, with dissipation following soon thereafter. As Karina weakens and becomes increasingly shallow, it will be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface high centered to the distant northwest. The updated track forecast lies along the same trajectory as the previous, but is shifted slightly southward due to recent observed motion, and is near the middle of guidance envelope. The intensity forecast is essentially unchanged and closely follows trends presented by SHIPS and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 20.7N 122.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 21.6N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 22.5N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 23.2N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 23.3N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 22.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard

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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-09-15 22:39:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 152039 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Overall, Teddy's organization has continued to slowly improve during the past several hours. AMSR microwave imagery near 1630 UTC showed that a low- to mid-level eye feature is beginning to form. The overall convective pattern has also improved, though not enough to increase the intensity estimates at this time, which only range from 45-55 kt. The intensity is therefore held at 55 kt, but it does appear that some intensification is imminent. The AMSR image showed indications of a microwave signature commonly associated with rapid intensification in favorable environments. Low shear and warm SSTs along the forecast track are certainly conducive, though dry air continues to be a possible limiting factor. The dry air is probably the reason that dry slots continue to occasionally appear in IR imagery near the center of Teddy. Rapid intensification probabilities are not particularly high; the SHIPS RI gives a 22 percent chance of a 30-kt increase during the next 24 h while DTOPS shows a mere 1 percent chance. The rest of the intensity models forecast only modest strengthening for the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is at the top of the intensity guidance for the next 48 h and slightly above all of the models after that, but I am hesitant to lower it any further at this time given the recent microwave signature and overall improvement in Teddy's structure. In contrast, Teddy's track outlook remains straightforward, and no changes of note were made to the official forecast. The tropical storm is turning gradually toward the northwest and should begin moving in that direction tonight. A ridge over the central Atlantic should then steer Teddy in that general direction for the rest of the week. The model spread is still much lower than normal, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 14.6N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 19.7N 53.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 22.5N 55.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 25.4N 58.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 18

2020-09-15 22:38:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 152038 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Sally has been inching its way toward the north-central Gulf Coast today. The overall structure of the storm has remained about the same during the day with a large ragged eye in apparent in radar imagery. A NOAA P-3 aircraft that has been sampling the storm since late this morning has reported peak flight-level winds of 76 kt, and NWS Doppler radar has shown velocities of 75-80 kt at around 7000 ft. The intensity was reduced to 70 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory and remains at that value for this advisory. Radar and aircraft fixes show that Sally has been moving very slowly toward the north or 350/2 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Sally is currently located within an area of weak steering flow between a couple of mid-level ridges to its east and west. A weak mid-level trough over the south-central United States is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days, which should cause Sally to turn north-northeastward and then northeastward over the next 24-36 hours. Sally's forward speed is expected to remain quite slow over the next 24-48 hours, but the guidance has trended slightly faster after that time. The slow forward speed is likely to result in a historical rainfall event for the north-central Gulf Coast. It may sound like a broken record, but the track guidance has again shifted eastward during the first 24-36 hours, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Since Sally has a large wind field, and storm surge and rainfall hazards extend far from the eye, users should not focus on the exact forecast track or specific location and timing of landfall as strong winds and bands of heavy rainfall are already affecting the Gulf Coast and will continue to do so for quite some time. The combination of upwelling and moderate westerly shear is likely to result in little change in strength prior to Sally moving onshore. Once the center of the hurricane moves onshore, rapid weakening is expected and the global models indicate that the circulation will becoming elongated along a frontal boundary in 3 to 4 days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Historic life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall is likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to far southeastern Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and into Georgia and the western Carolinas this week. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including Mobile Bay. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected this evening and overnight within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 29.5N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 30.6N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 31.5N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 32.5N 85.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0600Z 33.1N 83.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1800Z 33.5N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 18

2020-09-15 22:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 152038 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS TO NAVARRE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * BAY ST. LOUIS WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 88.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 88.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 88.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.6N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 86.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.5N 85.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.1N 83.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 33.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 88.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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