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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-09-15 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 152037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 47.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 53.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 55.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 25.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-15 22:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 152036 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 121.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.6N 123.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.2N 126.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.3N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 36
2020-09-15 22:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152035 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Another fortuitous AMSR2 microwave pass over the cyclone showed the outer concentric ring open over the south semicircle and a more noticeable vertical tilt. Furthermore, the cloud tops associated with the deep convection in the north quadrant have warmed during the past several hours. Consequently, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt and is in best agreement with the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Paulette continues to lose its tropical characteristics as it mingles with the rapidly approaching baroclinic zone from the northwest. In fact, earlier successive METOP A and B scatterometer passes on Paulette revealed that the northwest quadrant 34-kt wind radii had nearly doubled in size due to the aforementioned invading frontal zone moving out of the Canadian Maritimes. The sea surface temperatures quickly decrease to less than 20C within 24 hours as Paulette accelerates east-northeastward. As a result, the cyclone should weaken rather quickly and complete its extratropical transition on Thursday, as indicated in the global models and the statistical-dynamical guidance. Paulette is moving east-northeastward, or 060/26 kt, and this motion should continue with a further increase in forward speed through Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn south-southeastward to southward as it moves within the western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on the various consensus guidance. The initial wind radii and subsequent forecast wind radii were adjusted based on METOP A/B ASCAT 1110 UTC and 1424 UTC scatterometer passes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 39.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 41.4N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 44.0N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 45.8N 36.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z 45.8N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0600Z 43.9N 32.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1800Z 41.2N 32.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1800Z 38.0N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1800Z 34.5N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-15 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 152033 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky continues to be blasted by around 50 kt of westerly shear, with deep convection being continually removed from the center. Overall the coverage and intensity of the deep convection has decreased since this morning, and the initial intensity has been set to 40 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates (30-35 kt) and SATCON (45 kt). The high shear is expected to persist, and that in combination with marginal SSTs should result in weakening, and Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in around 36 hours, with dissipation expected in about 3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to HCCA and the IVCN consensus aids. The initial motion estimate is a bit faster toward the west-northwest or 300/10. Vicky should continue west-northwestward for the next 12 to 24 hours and then turn westward in the low-level flow before dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, near the middle of the guidance envelope, and has been adjusted a bit slower toward the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 21.2N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 21.6N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 22.1N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 22.4N 37.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 22.4N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 22.2N 40.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-15 22:33:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 152033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 32.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 32.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 31.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.6N 33.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.1N 35.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.4N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.4N 38.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 32.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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