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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-09-15 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150833 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 30.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 30.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 29.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.0N 31.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.7N 33.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.2N 35.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 38.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 30.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-09-15 10:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Karina has continued to become a little better organized tonight with a concentrated area of deep convection near and over the estimated low-level center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, and the initial wind speed is nudged up to 50 kt based on that data. Karina is approaching the 26 C isotherm, and it should be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. These less favorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier and more stable air mass should promote gradual weakening beginning by tonight, and Karina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 60 hours. In addition to the cool waters and dry air, an increase in southerly shear should cause the remnant low to dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at 10 kt. A continued northwestward motion on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge is expected for the next couple of days. After that time, a turn to the west and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as the weak and shallow system moves in the low-level flow. The initial 34-kt wind radii have been reduced based on partial ASCAT overpasses. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 22.0N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 23.9N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 23.1N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 34

2020-09-15 10:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 671 WTNT42 KNHC 150831 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Paulette has generally changed little overnight. The hurricane still has a central dense overcast feature with an eye occasionally evident in satellite images. Convective banding remains well organized, especially to the north of the center. The satellite intensity estimates range from 77 to 102 kt and based on that data, the initial intensity is again held at 90 kt. The hurricane could strengthen slightly in the short term due to a combination of baroclinic influences from an approaching trough and relatively warm water beneath the cyclone. However, a steady weakening trend should commence on Wednesday when Paulette moves over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind shear. These factors should ultimately lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete by day 3. However, some of the guidance suggests that this could occur up to a day sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and GFS models. Paulette continues to pick up speed, and the latest initial motion estimate is northeastward at 17 kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward even more during the next couple of days as it becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After a few days, however, Paulette will likely turn southeastward and then southward as it moves in the flow on the west side of a cut off deep-layer low. There are some differences in the models on how sharply Paulette turns southward, but they generally agree on the overall scenario. The NHC track forecast lies roughly between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 37.0N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 38.9N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 41.3N 50.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 43.7N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 46.0N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 44.9N 34.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z 41.6N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0600Z 38.7N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-09-15 10:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 672 WTPZ21 KNHC 150831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 120.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 120.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 120.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.0N 123.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.9N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.1N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 120.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 34

2020-09-15 10:30:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150830 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.5W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 130SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.5W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.9N 56.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.3N 50.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.7N 44.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 46.0N 35.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 44.9N 34.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 140SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 41.6N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 38.7N 32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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