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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-09-16 10:22:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160822 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 123.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 123.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 123.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.4N 124.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.1N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.4N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.1N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 123.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-09-16 08:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160646 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Special Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy has rapidly intensified overnight. Satellite images show an eye has formed, and satellite intensity estimates are between 77- 90 kt. The initial wind speed is set to 80 kt as a blend of these data. Further strengthening is expected and Teddy could become a major hurricane later today or Thursday. The intensity forecast has been raised considerably in the short-term based on current trends, and could have to revised upward on the regular 5 am advisory. No changes to the track forecast are needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0700Z 15.5N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-09-16 08:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160643 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 48.7W AT 16/0700Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 48.7W AT 16/0700Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 48.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 125 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 48.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 20

2020-09-16 08:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160643 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Special Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Justification for this special advisory is to increase the initial intensity and the 12-h forecast intensity at landfall. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Mobile Alabama WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has continued to strengthen this morning. Radar data show that Sally's eye has become better defined and Doppler velocities in the northern eyewall have reached average values of at least 110 kt between 5000-6000 ft ASL, which supports an equivalent surface wind speed of about 89 kt. The reconnaissance aircraft has recently measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 103 kt, which equates to about 93 kt using a standard 90 percent adjustment factor, while peak SFMR surface wind speed have been 85 kt. In addition, a recent dropsonde in the northeast eyewall measured an average wind speed of 113 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which equates to about a 94-kt surface wind. However, those winds appeared to be possibly contaminated by wind gusts. Based on the above data, the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt. Some additional slight strengthening is possible until landfall occur, and Sally could peak at 95 kt. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, and the system should become a remnant low in a couple of days. This is consistent with the latest model guidance. Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that Sally's motion is north-northeastward, or 030/02 kt. No changes were made to the previous track forecast. Sally should continue to move north-northeastward this morning, and then turn northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed by tonight. That motion will then continue for the next day or so. Then, as Sally approaches the westerly flow at higher latitudes, the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast with a slight further increase in forward speed until becoming a dissipating remnant low near the southeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Historic, life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall is likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and into Georgia and the western Carolinas this week. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including Mobile Bay. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning and then continue into this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0630Z 29.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 20

2020-09-16 08:37:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0630 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160637 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0630 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 87.8W AT 16/0630Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 87.8W AT 16/0630Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 87.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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