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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-09-15 11:05:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150905 CCA TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 16...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Corrected initial intensity from 80 kt to 75 kt There has been little change overall in Sally's convective structure in both satellite and Doppler radar data. An eye has tried to close off several times this morning, but after less than 30 minutes the southern eyewall has eroded. Until just recently, the central pressure had been steady for the past several hours at 986 mb. However, the most recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance pass through Sally's center reported a dropsonde pressure of 984 mb and 13 kt winds, which equals a pressure of 983 mb. Maximum 700-mb flight-level winds observed have only been 63 kt and peak SFMR winds have been 58 kt. Also, reports from nearby oil rigs have dropped off significantly since yesterday are are now in the 40-50 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt. The initial motion estimate to 300/02 kt. After a brief jog due west, it appears that Sally ahs resumed a slow drift toward the west-northwest. Sally is embedded within weak steering flow based on 0000Z upper-air data indicating 500-mb heights of 5900 meters and slightly higher surrounding the cyclone from Florida northward into the Tennessee Valley and then westward into the central and southern Plains. This weak steering pattern is expected to persist for the next few days, with a weak mid-level trough expected to move into the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday and Thursday, which will gradually lift Sally northward and then northeastward. Sally is forecast to merge with a frontal system by day 4 or 5. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and lies down the middle of the rather divergent model guidance envelope. Sally is now expected to remain in a moderate to high mid-to upper-level wind shear environment. Ina addition, some modest upwelling is likely occurring in the inner-core region based a SST decrease of nearly 2 deg F during the past 24 hours based on data from buoy 42012. After the Sally makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 days or less. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected early Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in some of these areas. 4. Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 28.9N 88.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 29.2N 88.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 30.6N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0600Z 31.4N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/1800Z 32.2N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 32.8N 84.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 33.2N 81.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-09-15 10:58:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150858 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE. THE STORM SURGE WARNING BETWEEN PORT FOURCHON AND THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE NAVARRE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA... INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 88.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 110SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 88.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.2N 88.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.6N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.4N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.2N 86.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.8N 84.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 33.2N 81.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 88.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-09-15 10:57:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150857 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 The tropical storm appears to have gotten better organized overnight, with deeper convection near the center and an increase in banding features. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt, a little lower than the subjective Dvorak estimates alone would indicate since they have been running a little hot for this storm. While there are no signs of a true inner core yet, the shear is quite low at present, and Teddy should have several days in a low or moderate shear environment over warm waters to strengthen. Thus, the new forecast is raised from the previous one and is closest to a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the NOAA corrected- consensus guidance. Teddy bears watching in the long range for category 4 strength, but regardless of the details, all of the guidance show it becoming a classical large and powerful September hurricane. The storm has turned west-northwestward tonight, or 295/10 kt. Teddy remains in a well-defined steering current for the next several days on the southwestern edge of the central Atlantic ridge, causing a west-northwest to northwest track through the end of the forecast. While the guidance is in very good agreement, there's been a rightward shift of almost all the aids, perhaps due to more upper-level westerly flow than the last cycle. The NHC track forecast is shifted eastward but lies on the western side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 13.7N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.6N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 23.5N 56.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 26.5N 59.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-09-15 10:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150854 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.0W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 20SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.0W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 45.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.4N 47.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 48.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 35SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.5N 56.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 26.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-09-15 10:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky remains sheared this morning with strong upper-level winds causing any deep convection to be located northeast of the center. The low-level circulation has also become distorted as well, with new bursts of convection causing the mean circulation to re-form to the north. The initial wind speed is kept 45 kt since the system isn't appreciably different than the last cycle. Models all weaken the storm during the next couple of days due to rather potent westerly shear (with 200-mb westerly winds as high as 70 kt forecast across Vicky's circulation). These extremely harsh conditions should make the intensity prediction rather simple, and Vicky is likely to decay into a remnant low within a day or two and open up into a trough in a few days. The re-formation of the center leads to an uncertain motion estimate of 325/8 kt. The storm should turn west-northwestward later today and westward on Wednesday as it becomes steered by the low-level subtropical ridge. Little change was made to the previous forecast, except for a small northward adjustment in the first day or so of the prediction due to the initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 20.3N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 21.0N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 21.7N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 22.2N 35.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 22.5N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 22.5N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 22.5N 40.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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