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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-09-15 16:46:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 151445 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 The satellite presentation of Sally has not changed much since overnight. A ragged eye is seen in WSR-88D radar imagery, with a band occasionally trying to wrap around the southwestern side. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft has just recently provided a new center fix, and data from the center drop indicated the minimum pressure is 983 mb. The first pass through the northeastern quadrant suggests that the 50-kt wind field may have expanded, but there has been little change in peak winds reported by the aircraft. The intensity has been held at 75 kt pending additional data from the NOAA P-3 mission that has just begun. A highly elevated oil rig just northeast of the center reported peak has reported sustained winds of 69 kt with a gust to 86 kt around 1200 UTC this morning. Sally has been meandering this morning, but the longer-term motion is northwestward or 315/2 kt. Sally remains within an area of weak steering flow, but a weak mid-level trough over the south-central United States is forecast to slide eastward over the next over the next couple of days. This pattern should cause Sally to move very slowly north-northwestward to northward over the next 24 hours, with the center of the hurricane nearing the northern Gulf Coast late tonight or Wednesday. By late Wednesday, Sally should turn northeastward as the aforementioned trough approaches Missouri and Arkansas. The new forecast has been nudged slightly eastward in the early portion of the track forecast, but the latter portion is very close to the previous advisory. The new track lies a little to the west of the various consensus aids in deference to the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models that are near the left edge of the guidance envelope. Sally's forward motion is forecast to be around 5 kt or less throughout the forecast period, which will result in a long period of heavy rainfall and historic flooding along the north-central Gulf Coast. Moderate westerly shear and upwelling beneath the slow moving hurricane are likely to prevent strengthening today. The shear is forecast to increase tonight and although some slight weakening could occur before the center reaches the coast, Sally is predicted to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall. Once Sally moves inland, rapid weakening is expected and circulation is forecast to lose definition and dissipate by day 4. Users are reminded to not focus on the specific timing and location of landfall. Life-threatening storm surge, historic flash flooding from heavy rainfall, and dangerous winds will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle. The highest inundation is expected along the Alabama coast, including Mobile Bay. 2. Historic life-threatening flash flooding is likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, are likely across inland portions of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas through the week. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected today within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 29.1N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 30.2N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 31.0N 87.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 31.9N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0000Z 32.6N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1200Z 33.0N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 17

2020-09-15 16:44:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 151443 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS... AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS TO NAVARRE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * BAY ST. LOUIS WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 88.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 88.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.2N 88.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.9N 86.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.6N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.0N 83.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-09-15 16:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151439 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Although the stiff westerly shear (magnitude of greater than 50 kt) continues to affect Vicky's vertical structure this morning, a 1107 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated that the cyclone is maintaining 45-kt sustained winds well to the east-northeast of the center. Therefore, once again for this advisory, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS intensity models and the deterministic guidance, including the simulated infrared imagery product, agree with Vicky weakening to a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipating by 72 hours due to the persistent strong shear. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. Vicky is forecast to continue on this general motion through Wednesday night within the low-level tradewind flow. No significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the new NHC forecast is based on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 20.6N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 21.3N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 21.9N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 22.2N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 22.2N 39.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 35

2020-09-15 16:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151437 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 A 0533 UTC AMSR2 overpass on Paulette already reveals structural changes associated with the approaching mid-latitude baroclinic zone. The microwave image and GOES-16 mid- to upper-level water vapor imagery show drier more stable air beginning to intrude into the western portion of the cyclone. Additionally, Paulette's rain shield is more confined to the northern half of the system, while drying out in the southern semi-circle. Only fragments of the eyewall remain in that particular area. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory and is supported by the subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although Paulette is beginning to lose some of its tropical characteristics, the cyclone still has a small window of opportunity to strengthen while it continues moving over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 12-18 hrs. Afterward, the water temperature drop drastically to less than 20C while Paulette becomes more involved with the aforementioned baroclinic system. As a result, the cyclone should weaken rather rapidly and complete its extratropical transition on Thursday, and this is based on an agreement of the large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical guidance. The aforementioned microwave pass indicated that the center of circulation was a bit west-southwest of the previous position and therefore the initial estimated motion is believed to be northeastward, or 055/25 kt. Paulette is forecast to accelerate further and turn east-northeastward later tonight and continuing through Wednesday night, then slow down a bit on Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn east- southeastward to south-southeastward as it moves within the western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just a little faster than the previous one through 60 hours and lies closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and is also similar to the GFEX ECMWF/FV3 simple consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 38.3N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 40.1N 53.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 42.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 45.0N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0000Z 45.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z 43.9N 33.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1200Z 39.9N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 35

2020-09-15 16:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151436 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 57.9W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 130SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 57.9W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 59.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.1N 53.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.7N 46.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.0N 40.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.6N 33.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 43.9N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 140SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N 32.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 57.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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