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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-14 22:34:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 29.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 29.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 29.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.1N 30.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.2N 31.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.0N 33.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 35.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.9N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.0N 39.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.1N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 29.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-14 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 142033 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Teddy is strengthening this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows a growing convective band south and west of the center and a CDO feature developing over the estimated low-level center position. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB. The environment along Teddy's forecast track features increasing SSTs and low shear for the next several days, and with the improved convective structure of the cyclone, steady strengthening is forecast. The NHC intensity prediction has been increased from the previous advisory, and shows a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours, which is supported by the SHIPS model and some of the RII indices. Beyond that time, Teddy is forecast to reach major hurricane intensity in about 3 days. The new NHC forecast is near HCCA through the forecast period. Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes suggest an initial motion of 275/12. The track forecast reasoning is similar to that of the previous advisory. Teddy will initially be steered westward and then west-northwestward by a deep-layer ridge located over the central Atlantic. As the ridge shifts eastward through the forecast period, Teddy is forecast to turn more northwestward as it moves around the western edge of the ridge. There is a fair amount of across track spread in the guidance, with the ECMWF on the right and the GFS and HWRF on the left. Overall the guidance envelope has shifted to the left since this morning. The new NHC track has been adjusted in that direction, and lies near or a little to the right of the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 13.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 13.6N 45.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 14.5N 47.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.4N 49.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.6N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 19.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 22.0N 56.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 24.5N 58.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Remnants of Rene Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-09-14 22:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 142032 TCDAT3 Remnants Of Rene Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Visible satellite imagery during the past few hours shows that Rene has opened into a trough of low pressure and is no longer a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last advisory. The remnants of Rene will likely move generally southwestward for the next day or two while the associated winds slowly subside. Although the trough may continue to produce occasional showers and thunderstorms, no redevelopment of the system is expected. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 26.9N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF RENE 12H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-14 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 142031 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 44.0W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 44.0W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 43.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.6N 45.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.5N 47.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.4N 49.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.6N 50.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.9N 52.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.3N 53.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 44.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Remnants of Rene Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-09-14 22:31:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 142031 TCMAT3 REMNANTS OF RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 49.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 49.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 49.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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