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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-09-14 22:55:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142055 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 The morning visible images showed Karina's partially obscured low level center under the northeast edge of the cyclone's deep convection. The displacement of the center is due to the ongoing presence of moderate vertical wind shear from the northeast. Cloud top temperatures have generally warmed through most of the morning, though the latest images showed a small burst of deep convection south of the center. An ASCAT pass this morning showed a large swath of 35 kt winds in the southeastern semicircle of Karina's circulation. The initial wind radii have been increased to account for the updated data. Dvorak fixes came in at 35 kt from SAB, and 45 kt from TAFB and PHFO. ASCAT peak winds were 37 kt. Based on a blend of these data, and little change in Karina's appearance in satellite imagery, the initial intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory. Moderate shear is expected to continue to affect Karina for another 24 hours. The shear will become weak from 36 to 72 hours, but by then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea surface temperatures. Most of the objective aids indicate that peak intensity has been reached, and gradual weakening will occur after 24 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows HCCA, and has Karina becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 96 hours, if not sooner. This forecast trend keeps the intensity higher than the statistical guidance. The initial motion for this package is 305/9 kt. Karina is expected to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through 60 to 72 hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep convection ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level flow. The forecast track has been adjusted a bit northward from the previous forecast, in part due to an adjustment in the initial position, and closely follows the HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.5N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 19.4N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 21.9N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama

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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-09-14 22:46:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 142046 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.8W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 200SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.8W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.4N 119.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.9N 122.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA

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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-09-14 22:45:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 142045 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 After the rapid spin up of the inner core late this morning, the most recent aircraft passes through the center have not found any higher flight-level winds, however there have been a few SFMR winds of 85-90 kt reported. Using a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this advisory. The next Air Force and NOAA aircraft have begun to sample the storm. Now that Sally has developed an inner core, the favorable atmospheric and ocean conditions of low vertical wind shear and warm water should allow for additional strengthening tonight while the system moves over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, and Sally could approach major hurricane strength. On Tuesday, the global models are predicting an increasing in southwesterly flow aloft, and this increase in shear, the potential for land interaction, and some upwelling over the shallower shelf waters over the northern Gulf should slow the intensification process. The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper-end of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HWRF and HFIP corrected consensus models. Sally did not move much earlier today as the center re-formation took place, but it appears that a slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion has resumed. Weak ridging over the southeastern United States is expected to steer Sally generally west-northwestward through early Tuesday. After that time, steering currents weaken and a slow northward motion is forecast as a weak mid-level trough develops over the the central United States. This trough is forecast to slide eastward, allowing Sally to begin a slow north-northeastward or northeastward motion. The specific timing and location of the turn will be critical as to the eventual location and timing of landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. The UKMET and ECMWF models show a more northeastward motion after the turn and have trended eastward, with the ECMWF much slower than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track has been adjusted eastward, and this requires and eastward extension of the hurricane warning. The new track most closely follows the GFS and it ensemble mean, but lies to the west of the various consensus aids, so some additional eastward adjustments could be needed in subsequent advisories. Given the uncertainty in the timing and location of the northward turn and the lack of well-defined steering currents, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 36 to 48 hours is around 60 to 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected late tonight or early Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin this evening in these areas and preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 28.8N 87.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 29.2N 88.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 29.7N 88.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 30.4N 88.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1800Z 31.3N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/0600Z 32.2N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1800Z 32.9N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 33.5N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-09-14 22:43:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 142043 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NAVARRE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 87.4W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 87.4W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.2N 88.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.7N 88.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.4N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.3N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 32.2N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 33.5N 83.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 87.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 32

2020-09-14 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142039 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 63.8W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 63.8W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 64.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.1N 61.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.8N 51.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.3N 44.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 46.6N 35.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 44.3N 32.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 63.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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