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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-15 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 740 WTPZ21 KNHC 150234 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 180SE 180SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 125.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 119.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-15 04:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Teddy is displaying some mixed signals this evening. On one hand, satellite imagery shows an improving cloud pattern, with increasing central convection and a large curved band on the southern side of the circulation. The latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates have increased to 55 kt on this basis. Scatterometer data, surprisingly, only shows 35-40 kt. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt as a blend of that data, assuming the typical undersampling from ASCAT, but there is a fair bit of uncertainty in the current wind speed. Teddy should have several days in a low or moderate shear environment over warm waters to intensify. All guidance responds to this forcing by showing Teddy near major hurricane strength in a few days, with the biggest disagreement being how fast it gets there. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA. Teddy is moving about the same as before, or 280/11 kt. No substantial changes were made to the forecast track with the storm in a seemingly stable steering current provided by a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic. Teddy should turn west-northwestward overnight and then northwestward on Wednesday through the end of the forecast while it moves on the southwestern flank of the ridge. Model guidance is in excellent agreement, with only some minor speed differences. The NHC track prediction is basically on top of the previous one and the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 13.2N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.8N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 14.8N 48.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.9N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.3N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 18.5N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 19.9N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 22.6N 56.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 25.5N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-15 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky continues to be highly sheared due to strong upper- tropospheric flow associated with a nearby trough, and its associated deep convection is confined to a small cluster to the northeast of the center. An ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago showed an area of winds to just over 40 kt over the northern semicircle and, based on sampling limitations, the current intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt. The storm is not likely to maintain its intensity, since the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear over the cyclone will become even stronger during the next day or so. Therefore steady weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is likely to become a remnant low in about 36 hours. The official intensity forecast is near or slightly below the latest model consensus. Center fixes give a slow northwestward motion, or 315/6 kt. A narrow and weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Vicky should result in a northwestward to west-northwestward motion into early Wednesday. Thereafter, when the system will have probably have lost most of its deep convection, the shallow cyclone is likely to move mainly westward following the low-level environmental winds. The official track forecast is close to previous one and about in the middle of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 20.5N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 21.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 22.3N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 22.5N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 22.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 22.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-15 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150232 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 29.9W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 29.9W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 29.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.5N 31.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.4N 32.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.5N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.5N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 29.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-15 04:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 45.0W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 45.0W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.8N 46.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.8N 48.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 49.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 51.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 52.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 54.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.6N 56.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 25.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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