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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-09-14 16:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 141451 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 An intense burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80 degrees Celsius has developed over and the to east of the center this morning. A recent fix from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the center has reformed to the east of the previous estimated location, beneath the burst of deep convection. NWS WSR-88D radar imagery shows an increase in banding around the eastern and southeastern portion of new center found by the aircraft and it appears that an eye is in its formative stage. The aircraft has reported believable SFMR winds of 55 kt, and that is the basis for the initial intensity. The most recent minimum pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 991 mb, down several millibars from the first fix on this flight. Sally is located within a conducive environment of low wind shear, warm waters, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions are likely to lead to steady strengthening over the next 24 hours or so. With the recent increase in organization of the inner core, there is more confidence that Sally will strengthen to a hurricane later today or tonight. Additional strengthening is possible on Tuesday while the storm moves slowly northwestward near the coast of southeast Louisiana. Increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will probably slow the intensification rate by late tomorrow. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Since Sally is forecast to be moving very slowly around the time of landfall a slower rate of weakening is indicated since a large portion of the circulation will remain over water for some time. Given the recent re-formation of the center, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. Weak ridging over the southeastern United State should steer Sally slowly west- northwestward through tonight. After that time, a northwestward to northward turn is anticipated but the exact timing and location of the turn remains uncertain. The general trend in the guidance has been eastward for the past few cycles, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models but a little west of the various consensus aids. Regardless of the exact forecast track and intensity of Sally, the slow-moving storm is expected to cause a life-threatening storm surge and freshwater flooding event. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin later today and this evening in these areas and preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 28.4N 86.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 28.7N 88.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/0000Z 31.8N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1200Z 32.6N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 33.1N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 30

2020-09-14 16:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 141451 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Deep convection continues to pulse over the eastern portion of Rene's circulation, enough to maintain the system's status as a tropical cyclone. However, recent visible statellite imagery suggest that the circulation may not be as well defined as it was yesterday. Satellite classifications support an initial wind speed of 25 kt. Strong west-northwesterly shear and dry air are expected to cause the depression to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12-24 hours. The global models show the low-level circulation dissipating within 2 to 3 days and so does the official forecast. Rene has moved very little overnight but a west-southwestward or southwestward motion within the low-level steering flow should begin soon. That general motion is expected to continue until dissipation in a day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 27.5N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 27.0N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/1200Z 26.4N 50.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 24.6N 53.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 30

2020-09-14 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 141450 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.3W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.3W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.4N 50.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 24.6N 53.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 48.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 31

2020-09-14 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141450 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON BERMUDA IN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 64.8W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 64.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.1N 63.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.5N 59.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.1N 54.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.9N 47.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.5N 41.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.1N 36.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.5N 33.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 40.1N 32.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 64.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-09-14 16:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141440 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 A METOP A/B ASCAT scatterometer pass over the cyclone showed a large swath of winds in the northeast quadrant on the order of 35 to 39 kt. Deep convection in that region of the cyclone continues to increase as well as near the center of circulation. Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt, making this the twentieth named storm of the season. This should be a short-lived tropical cyclone, however, as increasing southwesterly shear is expected to quickly weaken Vicky to a depression in a couple days, and the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low Thursday. This scenario is based on a combination of the global models and the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/05 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move northwestward with some increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours within the low to mid-level steering flow produced by the eastern end of the African monsoon trough. By Tuesday night, Vicky should turn west-northwestward to westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is close to the various consensus aids and is just to the north of the previous advisory beyond 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.7N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.6N 29.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 20.6N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 21.6N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.2N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 22.7N 36.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 23.0N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 23.1N 42.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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