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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-09-15 04:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150246 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 After rapidly strengthening earlier today, Sally's intensity has plateaued for now. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Sally this evening and they have found that the minimum pressure and winds have leveled off, and support perhaps a generous initial intensity of 85 kt. Doppler radar images and reports from both aircraft indicate the inner core of the hurricane is quite small and that the eyewall is open on the south side, likely due to some dry air that has wrapped into that portion of the circulation. Aircraft and Doppler radar fixes indicate that Sally is moving very slowly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 300/3 kt. Weak high pressure ridging to the north and east of Sally is expected to cause the hurricane to continue to move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward for another 12 hours, bringing the center of the storm very near the northern Gulf coast. By Tuesday afternoon, when the hurricane will likely be just offshore, the models show the steering currents collapsing and Sally is likely to drift northward before finally turning northeastward ahead of a developing mid-level trough over the central U.S. by late Wednesday. There continues to be a significant amount of uncertainty on exactly where and when Sally turns northward and makes landfall, with model solutions ranging from a landfall on the Florida panhandle to a landfall in extreme southeastern Louisiana. It should be emphasized that it is always challenging to forecast the track of hurricanes in weak steering currents, and in Sally's case the weak steering is occurring very near land. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Sally is still in generally favorable environmental conditions consisting of very warm SSTs and low wind shear. Since the hurricane will likely remain in those conditions through Tuesday morning, some strengthening seems likely in the short term. In 12 to 24 hours, when Sally is forecast to be very near the coast, a combination of an increase in westerly shear and cooler upwelled shelf waters should limit additional intensification. After the hurricane makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days over the southeast U.S. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance and is quite similar to the previous one. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected early Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in some of these areas. 4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely with Sally, as well as widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers, along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama and into northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee and the western Carolinas through the week. Sally may continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 28.9N 87.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 29.1N 88.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 30.4N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0000Z 31.3N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/1200Z 32.0N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 32.7N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 33.1N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-09-15 04:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150244 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA...HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 87.6W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 87.6W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.1N 88.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.4N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.3N 87.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.7N 84.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 33.1N 82.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 87.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-09-15 04:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150239 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Karina may not have reached its peak after all. The northeasterly vertical wind shear appears to have eased a bit, allowing the dense cirrus overcast from the central convection to fully obscure the low level cloud center. The cyclone also appears to be better organized than 24 hours ago. As a result, most of the Dvorak intensity estimates have increased, with ADT up to 39 kt, and PHFO and TAFB indicating 55 kt. SAB was unchanged from the 6 hours ago at 35 kt. Based on a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas radii have also been adjusted based on guidance from TAFB. Moderate shear should continue to affect Karina for another 12 to 24 hours. The shear is forecast to weaken after that, but by then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea surface temperatures. There is still a narrow window for additional intensification, but most of the guidance holds the intensity for another 12 to 24 hours, with gradual weakening occurring afterward. The forecast holds Karina at 45 kt for 24 hours, followed by weakening to post-tropical remnant low status by 72 hours. This is close to the HCCA guidance. The initial motion for this advisory is 310/10 kt. Karina is forecast to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through 60 to 72 hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep convection ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level flow. The objective guidance is tightly packed through around 60 hours, with variations occurring thereafter regarding when the southwestward turn will occur. The forecast track is close to the previous forecast and closely follows the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.1N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 23.8N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 23.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 33

2020-09-15 04:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150235 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Paulette's cloud pattern has degraded during the past few hours, and recent microwave imagery suggests that the eyewall of the hurricane was at least for a time open to the south. A larger mostly closed ring of convection was also present, indicating that Paulette may be going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite-based current intensity estimates range from 65 to 102 kt, but have generally decreased since the last advisory. The intensity estimate remains 90 kt at this time, but there is a high degree of uncertainty in this assessment. Assuming Paulette can maintain a well-defined inner core, either through the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle or redevelopment of convection in the southern eyewall, it should have an opportunity to strengthen during the next 24 h. The intensity guidance is not quite as bullish anymore, so the intensity forecast has been lowered slightly, but it is still above the intensity consensus through 36 h. Paulette could begin to lose tropical characteristics around that time and rapid weakening is expected as a result. The NHC forecast conservatively shows Paulette becoming fully post-tropical in 72 h, but there are indications from the GFS simulated satellite imagery that it could complete its transition sooner. Paulette has turned northeastward and is accelerating, as predicted, with an initial motion estimate of 35/15 kt. The system will likely race generally east-northeastward for the next few days. A slower motion and eventual turn southeastward or even southward is expected near the end of the week when the cyclone encounters a large cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic, however it should be post-tropical by that time. The track guidance remains in excellent overall agreement overall, and NHC forecast is based heavily on TVCN and HCCA. The wind radii analysis and forecast were updated based on data from an ASCAT-A overpass at 0050 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 35.7N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 37.4N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 39.8N 54.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 42.3N 48.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 44.6N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 46.0N 37.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 45.8N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z 43.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0000Z 39.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 33

2020-09-15 04:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 630 WTNT22 KNHC 150235 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 62.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 130SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 62.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.4N 59.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.8N 54.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.3N 48.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 44.6N 41.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.0N 37.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.8N 35.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 140SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 43.0N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 39.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 62.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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