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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 13
2019-09-26 04:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260234 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 38.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 280SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 38.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 37.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 38.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-25 22:42:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 20:42:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 21:38:19 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-09-25 22:41:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252041 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger while a large complex of outer bands continues in the southeastern semicircle. In addition, a AMSR-2 overpass near 1530 UTC suggested there is at least a partial eyewall or convective ring near the center. The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus intensity estimate. The hurricane still shows good cirrus outflow in all directions, and it still appears some dry air is entraining into the system in the northwestern quadrant. The initial motion is now 285/16. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west-northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W. Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h. Since the last advisory, the track guidance has shifted a little to the right after 36 h. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, but after 36 h it now lies a little to the left of the center of the guidance envelope. Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear environment during the next three days, with the only negative factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air. The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening for the next 36 h or so, but the the chances of rapid intensification in the various statistical indices have gone down since the previous advisory. The new intensity forecast will call for 36 more hours of intensification, and it continues to lie near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast follows the general trend of the guidance in showing little change in strength between 36-96 h, although fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After that time, Lorenzo is likely to encounter southwesterly shear, and thus some weakening is forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 14.5N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.0N 38.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.1N 40.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 23.0N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 40.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-25 22:41:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Lorenzo was located near 14.5, -36.9 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 12
2019-09-25 22:41:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 252040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 36.9W ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 36.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected by Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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