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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-09-25 16:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 251435 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 35.1W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 130SE 30SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 35.1W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 34.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.4N 37.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 50SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.3N 39.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 40.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.4N 42.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 25.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 35.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-25 16:35:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Lorenzo was located near 14.1, -35.1 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 11
2019-09-25 16:35:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 35.1W ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 35.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected late Thursday or Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-25 10:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 08:58:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 08:58:40 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-25 10:57:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 250857 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity near the center of Lorenzo during the past several hours. There have been no good microwave passes over the cyclone since yesterday, however, a partial SSMIS pass showed hints that a mid-level eye is forming. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. Lorenzo is the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season. The SHIPS and DTOPS rapid intensification probability models both show that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that Lorenzo will strengthen by 25 kt or more during the next 24 hours. The large size of the cyclone appears to be the only obvious inhibiting factor to rapid intensification since the environment is otherwise quite favorable for continued strengthening. The NHC forecast now shows Lorenzo becoming a major hurricane in 36 hours, faster than previously anticipated. By 72 h and beyond, most of the guidance keeps Lorenzo in a nearly steady state. In reality, most strong hurricanes have some short-term fluctuations in intensity, but such fluctuations are nearly impossible to forecast this far out in time. Regardless of its exact intensity, confidence is high that Lorenzo will be a large and powerful hurricane over the eastern and central Atlantic through the rest of this week. No changes of significance were made to the track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to move west-northwestward for the next day or so, before turning northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A turn toward the north is anticipated by the end of the forecast period. The models are still in fairly good agreement on the track of the hurricane, and the NHC forecast is between the consensus aids HCCA and TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 13.6N 33.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 14.0N 36.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 14.7N 38.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 15.9N 40.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 17.5N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 21.1N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 24.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 27.4N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos
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