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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2019-09-25 22:41:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 252040 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 12
2019-09-25 22:39:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 252039 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 36.9W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 130SE 30SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 36.9W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 36.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.1N 40.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 44.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 36.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-25 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 14:50:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 15:38:17 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-09-25 16:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 251436 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with a small central convective feature surrounded by a large complex of outer bands in all quadrants except the northwest, where some dry air may be entraining. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMMS satellite consensus technique have increased to near 75 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The hurricane currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions. The initial motion is 285/15. The subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west- northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W. Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h. While the guidance agrees with this scenario, there is some spread on the longitude of the recurvature between the easternmost GFS model and the westernmost ECMWF model. The new forecast lies between these models in best overall agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus guidance. Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear environment during the next three days, with the only negative factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air. The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening, with rapid strengthening possible during the first 24-36 h. The new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast, and for the first 36-48 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast shows little change in strength between 36-72 h, although some fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After 72 h, Lorenzo is likely to encounter some southwesterly shear, and thus some weakening is forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 14.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 14.4N 37.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 15.3N 39.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.7N 40.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.4N 42.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 25.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 29.0N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-09-25 16:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 251435 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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