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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2019-09-25 10:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 250856 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/RAMOS

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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)

2019-09-25 10:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LORENZO BECOMES THE FIFTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Lorenzo was located near 13.6, -33.9 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 10

2019-09-25 10:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250856 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO BECOMES THE FIFTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 33.9W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 33.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected by Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 10

2019-09-25 10:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250855 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 33.9W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 33.9W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 33.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.0N 36.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.7N 38.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.9N 40.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 41.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 44.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 27.4N 43.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 33.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/RAMOS

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