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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 17
2014-07-02 22:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 022035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...DOUGLAS WEAKENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 116.2W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-07-02 22:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 022035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 17
2014-07-02 22:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 022034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.2W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.2W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.6N 116.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.0N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.5N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.8N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-07-02 16:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 14:33:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 14:32:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-02 16:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS MAINTAINING 45-MPH WINDS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 19.7, -116.0 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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