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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Public Advisory Number 16
2014-07-02 16:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021432 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...DOUGLAS MAINTAINING 45-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 116.0W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST. DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. DOUGLAS IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY BUT THEN RESUME A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 16
2014-07-02 16:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 021432 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 116.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 116.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 116.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N 116.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.9N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.6N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 116.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-07-02 11:15:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 08:51:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2014 09:06:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-07-02 10:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020855 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 A flareup of deep convection in the northern semicircle has developed during the past few hours even though Douglas is now moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures. A 02/0528 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated a couple of 39-kt wind vectors in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone, so the initial intensity is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. Douglas is moving slowly northwestward or 325/03 kt. Steering currents surrounding the cyclone are expected to remain weak for the next couple of days as Douglas remains trapped in a weakness in the subtropical ridge that extends from Baja California westward across the eastern North Pacific. As the cyclone weakens over colder water and becomes more vertically shallow, it should be steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow by day 3 and beyond. The track forecast is is similar to the previous advisory track and is close to the consensus track model TVCE. Despite the recent aforementioned resurgence in convection and very light vertical wind shear, Douglas is not long for this world. The cyclone is currently located over sub-26C SSTs, and the water ahead of the cyclone only gets colder while the surrounding air mass is becoming drier and more stable as well. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast by 12 hours and beyond, and Douglas is expected to become a remnant low by 48 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous forecast and closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 19.6N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 19.8N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.6N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 21.1N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 22.2N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 23.0N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-02 10:52:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 19.6, -116.0 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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