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Summary for Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (EP4/EP042014)
2014-07-02 04:55:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS MEANDERING WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 1 the center of DOUGLAS was located near 19.4, -115.7 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-07-02 04:54:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 020254 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 115.7W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 115.7W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.7N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Graphics
2014-07-01 23:15:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 20:42:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 21:06:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-07-01 22:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012041 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Since the last advisory, deep convection associated with Douglas has consolidated into a long band wrapping around the western and southern portions of the broad circulation. As a result, Dvorak intensity estimates have increased slightly to 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value is at 2.6/35 kt. A blend of these data is used to arrive at an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. Even though Douglas is in a nearly shear-free environment, the cyclone is traversing gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more stable air. Given these negative thermodynamic factors, the intensity guidance shows a slow decay of the cyclone's winds during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast follows this philosophy and is about the same as the previous one. The forecast is in basic agreement with the latest multi-model consensus, and still shows remnant low status on day 3 and dissipation just after day 5. The latest fixes suggest that the cyclone's forward speed may be decreasing, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/04. A weakness in the subtropical ridge north of Douglas should result in a further reduction in forward speed, with a possible bend of the track toward the north-northwest during the next day or so. As the cyclone becomes shallower, a turn toward the west-northwest and then the west with some increase in forward speed should occur prior to dissipation. The NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the right on the basis of the latest multi-model consensus but is on the far left side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 19.2N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 19.5N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.9N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 20.5N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 21.6N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 21.8N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2014-07-01 22:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 012041 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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