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Hurricane DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-16 22:45:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 20:45:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 20:35:45 GMT
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-07-16 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162036 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Dolores's satellite presentation is slowly deteriorating. Cloud tops have been warming since the last advisory, and visible and microwave imagery indicate that dry air is wrapping into the circulation. The intensity is estimated to have decreased to 90 kt based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Progressively cooler water, a drier and more stable environment, and increasing shear in about three days will all contribute to continued weakening through the entire forecast period. The intensity models are in good agreement on the rate of weakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Due to the increasingly hostile environment, Dolores could become a remnant low by day 4. Dolores has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of 300/7 kt. A building mid-level ridge to the northeast should keep the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours, followed by a turn to the northwest and north-northwest once Dolores reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The GFDL remains an eastern outlier after 36 hours, but otherwise the rest of the models are in very good agreement on Dolores's future track. The NHC track forecast is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF, and no major changes from the previous forecast were required on this cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 20.2N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 21.7N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 23.0N 118.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 26.8N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 30.0N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-16 22:35:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 the center of DOLORES was located near 20.2, -112.7 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 22
2015-07-16 22:35:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 162035 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 ...DOLORES WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 112.7W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 112.7 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday night. A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores could become a tropical storm by Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 22
2015-07-16 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 162033 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 112.7W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 112.7W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 112.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.7N 116.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 118.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.8N 121.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 30.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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