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Hurricane DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-16 16:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 14:37:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 14:38:44 GMT
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-07-16 16:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161437 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Cloud tops have actually cooled around Dolores's eye during the past few hours, with a black ring completely encircling the eye in the infrared Dvorak enhancement. This would suggest that weakening is not occurring at the moment, and the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. Dolores has another 24 hours or so before it reaches sub-26C water, and given the hurricane's marginal annular structure, only gradual weakening is anticipated in the short term. Much colder water, increasing shear, and a drier, more stable environment should induce a faster rate of weakening after 24 hours, and Dolores could become a tropical storm within 48 hours. The cyclone is expected to be a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models for the first 36 hours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter. The SHIPS and LGEM dissipate the system by day 4 or 5, which seems unrealistic given that the global models maintain a cyclone for the entire forecast period. Dolores has been moving northwestward, or 305/6 kt, but it should turn west-northwestward soon as a mid-level ridge axis builds westward from northern Mexico. A turn back to the northwest and then north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected beyond 48 hours once Dolores reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The GFS and ECMWF models are in much better agreement than they were yesterday, and the main outliers on this cycle are the UKMET and GFDL, which seem too far to the east. The new NHC track forecast remains near the GFS-ECMWF consensus and is not much different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 19.9N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 21.3N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 22.3N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 25.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 29.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 30.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-16 16:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 the center of DOLORES was located near 19.9, -111.8 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 21
2015-07-16 16:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 161436 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 ...DOLORES STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 111.8W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 111.8 West. Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dolores is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later today, and Dolores could be a tropical storm by early Saturday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Gusts to tropical storm force were still occurring on Socorro Island a couple of hours ago but should continue to diminish during the day. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2015-07-16 16:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 161436 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 8 11(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA CLARION 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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