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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 21
2015-07-16 16:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 161436 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 111.8W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 111.8W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 111.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 116.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N 117.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.6N 120.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 30.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-16 10:49:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES MOVING AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... ...MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 the center of DOLORES was located near 19.5, -111.4 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 20
2015-07-16 10:49:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160849 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 ...DOLORES MOVING AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... ...MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 111.4W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 111.4 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dolores is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast to commence later today or tonight. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). An automated station on Socorro Island reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 80 mph (129 km/h) within the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-16 10:46:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 08:46:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 08:45:56 GMT
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-07-16 10:45:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160845 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Enhanced B-D curve infrared and microwave imagery show that Dolores is exhibiting annular hurricane characteristics this morning, with its distinctly symmetric, thick eyewall donut-shaped appearance, large 30 nmi eye, and a lack of well-defined rainbands. Decreasing 26-28C sea surface temperatures and light southeasterly shear appear to be promoting Dolores' cloud pattern. For this advisory, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Because of Dolores' annular structure, only slight weakening is expected through the 36 hour period. Afterward, a sharp decrease in SSTs, a more stable thermodynamic environment, and increasing vertical shear should cause the cyclone to weaken more quickly. After smoothing out the trochoidal oscillations, the long-term motion is estimated to be 300/6. There is no significant change to the track forecast philosophy. Dolores should continue to be steered by the flow produced by the building subtropical ridge and move on a west-northwestward to an eventual northwestward heading around the western periphery of the anticyclone. Much uncertainty and large spread exists in the guidance suite beyond 72 hours. Global and hurricane models either show a turn toward the west-northwest in response to the building ridge or, a northwest to north-northwest track due to a mid- to upper-level trough approaching from the northwest. The NHC forecast basically splits these two solutions and follows the GFEX and TVCN multi-models, and is a little to the right of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 20.0N 112.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 28.0N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 30.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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