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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2015-07-16 10:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 160845 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0900 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 2 16(18) 9(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA CLARION 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 20
2015-07-16 10:44:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160844 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0900 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.4W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.4W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 112.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 30.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 111.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-16 04:41:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 02:36:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 02:40:47 GMT
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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2015-07-16 04:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 160235 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 64 75 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA CLARION 34 2 18(20) 18(38) 3(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-07-16 04:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160235 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Dolores appears to be gradually losing strength, but it is still a major hurricane. Although the eye of the hurricane remains quite distinct, satellite images indicate that cloud tops in the eyewall have warmed some during the past several hours. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT support lowering the initial intensity to 100 kt. Dolores is expected to remain over warm water and in relatively favorable atmospheric conditions for about another 24 hours. Therefore, little change in strength is forecast during that time. Afterwards Dolores is expected to move over cooler water and into an environment of stronger shear and drier air. These unfavorable conditions should cause a steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely just an update of the previous one and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The eye of the hurricane has been wobbling around quite a bit. Smoothing through the oscillations yields an initial motion estimate of 300/05 kt. The subtropical ridge that is currently providing the steering for Dolores is expected to build westward during the next couple of days. This pattern change should cause the cyclone to turn more toward the west with an increase in forward speed during the next 48 hours. Dolores is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge in a few days, and that should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The latest guidance has generally shifted a little to the northeast, and the official track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. This forecast is in good agreement with a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.1N 110.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 19.6N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 20.1N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 20.5N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.9N 116.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 26.2N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 29.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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